Analysis of production cuts in winter season 2018-2019

SHANGHAI, Aug 3 (SMM) – Chinese authorities are mulling details of production cuts in the ferrous and non-ferrous industry across the smog-prone Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and nearby areas, during the upcoming winter season, SMM learned from market talk this week. The cuts are part of an effort to reduce smog and improve air quality, and are stricter than cuts last winter.

Compared to last year, SMM finds major differences as follows:

Steel mills across six key cities, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Handan, Xingtai and Anyang, will be required to cut capacity by half during the heating season from November 15, 2018 to March 15, 2019. Tianjin and Xingtai are new additions to the list this year. Mills in the remaining cities in the region will need to shut no less than 30%.

Cuts are determined from the designed capacity of blast furnaces. Captive facilities including sintering machines and coke ovens will also undertake cuts or suspensions, which were not required in the previous year’s plan.

This year's plan will allow mills with pollutant emissions, across production and transportation processes, that meet the ultra-low standards to be free from the staggered production model, though SMM believes that only two mills meet these standards currently. A cut of 50% would be still imposed on these mills when pollution exceeds the orange-alert level.

Coking duration at all coke plants across the regions will be required to be extended beyond 36 hours during that period. Plants can avoid staggered production if their coke ovens have a hood, if they have installed desulphurisation and denitrification facilities and the emissions are lower than the ultra-low standards.

Casting and smelting facilities in the casting industry will be suspended. This excludes natural gas furnaces and electric furnaces with emissions that meet the targets. Such suspension can be exempted if a plant obtains approval from the local government. Natural gas furnaces and electric furnaces should still cease operation if pollution exceeds the yellow-alert level.

In terms of the impact to demand-side issues such as trucking restrictions, the latest proposal for this year looks slightly harsher than last winter for restrictions on days of heavy pollution, though outside of the heavily polluted days the number of exemptions for industries which meet certain standards, namely their power source and emissions, appears to be greater than last year. The policies aim for a 5% improvement in PM2.5 levels and a 5% reduction of the number of heavily polluted days. This suggests that demand restrictions will have to be as strict as last year, or greater.

Details:

Action Plan on Comprehensive Control for Autumn and Winter Air Pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Nearby Areas
	2017	2018
Date	October 1, 2017 – March 31, 2018	October 1, 2018 – March 31, 2019	Note
Days	182	182
Geographic coverage	Beijing, Tianjin, and 26 cities in Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, and Henan provinces including Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Langfang, Baoding, etc.	Beijing, Tianjin, and 26 cities in Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, and Henan provinces including Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Langfang, Baoding, etc.
Basis	Thoroughly rectify heavy pollutant companies, reduce their emissions and use of coal, highlight staggered production plans, and strengthen governmental supervision to address heavy air pollution.	With the industry structure, energy, transport, and land as a foundation, promote clean energy and rectification of heavy pollutant companies, overhaul bulk freight transport from road to rail, highlight remediation on diesel trucks, industrial furnaces and emission of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and strengthen governmental supervision to address heavy air pollution.
Targets	In targeted cities, average concentration of particulate matter with a diameter below 2.5 micrometres (PM2.5) will be reduced by 15% on the year. The number of heavy-pollution days will be reduced by more than 15% on the year.	In targeted cities, average concentration of PM2.5 particulate matter will be reduced by 5% on the year. The number of heavy-pollution days will be reduced by 5% on the year.
Steel industry	Implement a classified management system based on each plant’s emissions, and impose staggered production by the end of September 2017. Steel mills in key cities such as Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Handan, and Anyang are required to cut steel production by 50% in the heating season. The cut is based on actual production of their blast furnaces. Cuts are checked through the actual power usage at plants.	Steel mills in key cities such as Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Handan, Xingtai, and Anyang are required to cut steel production by 50% in the heating season. Cuts for other targeted cities should be 30% or more. Production of supporting sintering machines and coke ovens will also be cut accordingly. Plants whose overall operations meet the ultra-low emission standards are exempt from staggered production. Plants whose production meets part of the ultra-low standards will face staggered production. All plants are required to cut production by 50% during heavy pollution.
Coking industry	Coking duration at coke plants in urban areas are required to be extended beyond 48 hours, and that of plants in other areas should be extended to over 36 hours.	Coking duration across all coke plants are required to be extended beyond 36 hours. Coke plants with desulphurisation and denitrification facilities and emissions that meet standards are exempt from staggered production.
Casting industry	Except for electric furnaces and natural gas furnaces that meet emission standards, all other facilities are required to suspend in the heating season. In special cases, production only starts with approval from the municipal government. Production of all electric furnaces and natural gas furnaces should be suspended during heavy pollution.	Except for electric furnaces and natural gas furnaces that meet emission standards, all the other casting and smelting facilities (including blast furnaces for pig iron casting) are required to suspend in the heating season. In special cases, production only starts with approval from the municipal government. Production of all electric furnaces and natural gas furnaces should be suspended during heavy pollution.
Building materials industry	Increase the proportion of staggered cuts. Full suspension is imposed across industries of cement, brick kiln, ceramics, glass wool, rock wool, and plaster tablet in the heating season. Cement grinding plants are required to suspend in heavy pollution.	Increase the proportion of staggered cuts. Except for plants in the list for staggered production (see column on the right), full suspension is imposed across industries of cement (excluding grinding plants), brick, ceramic, glass wool, rock wool, mineral wool, waterproof building materials, and plaster tablet in the heating season. Glass plants are required to cut production in heavy pollution.	2018: Little or no cuts are imposed on plants powered by natural gas, electricity, or power plant thermodynamic system. This includes industries of casting, ceramic, brick, glass wool, plaster tablet, waterproof building materials, rock wool, and mineral wool. For plants listed in the Industrial Structure Adjustment Guideline, there will be a greater cut or suspension.
Nonferrous metals and chemicals sector	Primary aluminium producers cut production by over 30%. Alumina producers cut production by 30%. Carbon producers whose emissions meet standards cut production by over 50%. Carbon producers whose emissions did not meet standards suspended production. Melting and casting processes in the secondary metal production cut by half. Pharmaceutical companies that produce active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) and pesticide companies that use organic solvents suspended production if they discharged VOCs.	Primary aluminium producers cut production by over 30%. Alumina producers cut production by 30%. Carbon producers cut production by half. Melting and casting processes in the secondary metal production cut by half. Pharmaceutical companies that produce active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) and pesticide companies that use organic solvents in production suspended production if they discharged VOCs.
Transportation beyond peak hours	Transport of raw materials and finished products across steel, coke, nonferrous metals, power, and chemicals should be conducted beyond peak hours. Plants are highly encouraged to use freight vehicles with fewer exhaust emissions, such as those that meet the national IV and V emission standards. Vehicles that meet the national IV and above emission standards are required to account for over 80% of the overall freight vehicles during the heating season. During heavy pollution, delivery vehicles are banned from entering or leaving the ports across Circum-Bohai Sea region. This excludes the transportation of basic goods for daily use or special purposes. Vehicles that meet the national IV and above standards will avoid the ban if they are moving foreign traded goods or international travellers. Delivery vehicles, except for those that ensure production safety, are banned from entering or leaving the plants of key sectors.	Transport of raw materials and finished products across steel, construction materials, coke, nonferrous metals, chemicals and mining sectors should be conducted beyond peak hours. Logistics distribution in urban areas, between urban areas and ports or between ports should also be conducted beyond peak hours. If pollution exceeds the yellow-alert level, diesel vehicles, except for those that ensure production safety, are banned from entering or leaving the plants. This excludes the transportation of basic goods for daily use or special purposes. Vehicles that meet the national V and above standards can avoid the ban if they are moving foreign traded goods or international travellers.