Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2017-9-5)

SHANGHAI, Sept. 5 (SMM) –Market will eye Caixin China August service PMI, euro zone July retail sales and US July durable goods orders today. 

The US dollar index was weak yesterday, due to poor non-farm payrolls and escalation in geopolitical conflicts. Speech by US Fed official Brad will offer guidance for US dollar. 

Caixin China service PMI has been above 50 this year, but growth slowed down. Although recovering manufacturing boosted economic outlook, economy remains under pressure if service sector growth keeps slowing down. Caixin China service PMI has diverged with manufacturing PMI for the fourth time since release of July figure. It remains to be seen whether the divergence will continue in August.        

Recent data showed euro zone economy remains positive and inflation also improved. But, stimulus by ECB has yet to translate into faster inflation and wage growth. So, monthly rate of euro zone July retail sales may fall, which will have limited impact, though. Market focus will be ECB’s policy decision on September 7. 

Preliminary figure for monthly rate of US July durable goods orders was lower than forecast and previous figure. Lower durable goods orders shows US manufacturing activity is slowing. Data released last Friday showed newly added jobs in manufacturing sector hit highest growth in 5 years. US manufacturing PMI released by ISM and Markit both rose in August. This means manufacturing is expanding at a faster pace. So, final figure for monthly rate of US July durable goods orders may rise.