[Al] CBI Survey - Operating Rates at Aluminum Profile Producers

SHANGHAI, July 13 (CBI China) -- A recent CBI survey of 27 domestic aluminum profile producers (total capacity: 1.8875 million mt/yr) revealed the following insights:

    1)  Production

    According to the survey, operating rates at the 27 aluminum profile producers fell by 4% compared to May.  The average operating rate remained near 60%, but down sharply compared to 80% during the same period last year. The CBI survey also reveals output at select producers experienced increases on a yearly basis due to improved operating methods and expanding sales channels, while output at other producers experienced significant declines. In this context, producers with relatively strong competitiveness have gradually improved market share.

    Operating rates at large producers fell by more than 5%, but were still higher than operating rates at medium to small producers. Operating rates at small producers also fell by 5%, an indication of increasing competition and the deteriorating economic environment.

    2) Forecast of July Orders

    According to the survey, only 40% of producers believe July orders will be flat at June levels, while the remaining producers said July orders will decrease. The latter prediction is line with the current bearish spot market and the seasonal low demand period. However, CBI believes pessimism with regard to orders does not necessarily signal a significant decline in demand since national economic stimulus plans will continue to take effect. Economic data from the automobile and real estate sectors has been strong, an indication that end-user demand is still growing. In this context, CBI predicts operating rates at domestic aluminum profile producers will still fall during July, but size of the drop will be limited.

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