2010 January Al Imports and Exports Data Analysis

SHANGHAI, Mar. 1 (SMM) --
Bauxite:
According to China Customs, China's bauxite imports were 1.79 million mt during January, down 31.45% compared with December levels, but still considered normal.  Bauxite imports were relatively low in January 2009 due to the ongoing financial crisis, and this past low level contributing to the recent YoY growth rate of 64.46%. Operating rates at alumina producers with imported bauxite as raw material remain stable, so bauxite imports will not likely experience any marked changes for the next few months.

Alumina:
According to China Customs, China's alumina imports were 674.5 kt during January, up 93.19% MoM, and up 103.94% YoY, a record high since May 2006.  This growth is in line with the trend of steady increases in alumina prices since late 2009 due to supply shortages, and also confirms the growing trend of long-term imported alumina contracts. However, SMM believes the recent surge in imports is temporary and that alumina imports will fall in February.

Aluminum:
According to China Customs, China's aluminum imports were 40.1 kt during January.  Aluminum exports, however, fell as expected, to 9.1 kt, down 66.66% MoM, but still higher than average monthly level of 3.8 kt in 2009.  China's aluminum exports to South Korea and Japan accounted for more than 80% of total exports, and is related to the high local premium in those areas of USD 130/mt.  In addition, a limited amount of goods are believed to be re-exported from China's bonded warehouses.

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