2009 September Al Output Data Analysis

SHANGHAI, Oct. 23 (SMM) --
Alumina:
According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA), China's alumina output was 2.21 million mt during September, up 7.2% MoM, and also up on a yearly basis, an indication that alumina capacity in operation has experienced growth rates of more than 10%, which is also in line with CBI's previous prediction. Alumina output is expected to grow at a slower pace during 4Q, as any upward room for operating rates at domestic alumina producers will be limited after constant increases.
Aluminum:
According to CNIA, China's aluminum output was 1.22 million mt during September, up 5.48% YoY, and up 5.72% MoM.  CBI believes aluminum output will continue to grow at this rate during October, but slow during November and December.  CBI predicts China's monthly aluminum output released by the CNIA will likely surpass 1.3 million mt until December, but based on CBI surveys and analysis, actual domestic monthly aluminum output will approach 1.45 million mt by the end of 2009.

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