[SMM Middle East Weekly Review] Talks stalemate and Hormuz disruption keep Iranian export offers flat

Indian HRC export prices held at 650USD/tonne FOB India for Europe, 580USD/tonne for the Middle East and 555USD/tonne for Southeast Asia. Fresh firm offers and confirmed bookings remained limited ahead of Diwali. Europe continued to offer the highest nominal export realisation, while lower Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian prices restricted mills’ interest in overseas sales. Competitive Indonesian supply into Vietnam also limited opportunities for Indian material. Domestically, Mumbai HRC was at 656.5USD/tonne (62,475INR/tonne) EXW, excluding 18% GST. Market participants reported that some mills had raised prices by approximately 5–8USD/tonne (500–750INR/tonne), while others could implement increases after Diwali. Earlier maintenance and higher coking-coal costs supported sellers’ pricing intentions, although cautious purchasing limited evidence of acceptance at the revised levels. Domestic sales continued to offer more attractive returns than exports to the Middle East and Southeast Asia. Billet export indications remained at 460–470USD/tonne FOB India, with fresh transactions unconfirmed. Traders found the prices unviable amid a relatively firm domestic market and, therefore, continued to focus on the latter. Trading is expected to remain subdued through the holidays. Post-Diwali distributor restocking and acceptance of revised mill offers will determine whether domestic HRC increases hold. For billet and scrap, stronger finished-steel sales will be needed to support sustained procurement.

Turkish long products rebounded clearly this week on post-holiday restocking and firmer scrap, while flat products stalled under EU quota limits. Rebar rose USD 20/tonne to USD 615/tonne EXW, excluding VAT. Export rebar held at USD 605/tonne FOB, with 5 kt from Iskenderun sold at USD 600/tonne FOB and 3.5 kt from Marmara at USD 607/tonne FOB, both for November shipment. On costs, Turkish mills bought at least seven deep-sea scrap cargoes for December shipment in a week, mainly from the UK and Northern Europe. First-round HMS 1/2 80:20 deals were at USD 395–398.5/tonne CFR. In semi-finished steel, domestic billet recovered to USD 565/tonne EXW, while imported billet held at USD 520/tonne CFR. Chinese billet for January shipment was offered at USD 515–520/tonne CFR. Black Sea billet rose USD 5/tonne to USD 465/tonne FOB, but almost no trades took place. In flat products, HRC fell USD 5/tonne to USD 620/tonne EXW. Export HRC rose USD 5/tonne to USD 615/tonne FOB. The EU HRC quota is exhausted, and about 0.45 million tonnes of steel sits at ports awaiting clearance on 1 Jan. Imported HRC rose USD 3/tonne to USD 548/tonne CFR. Looking ahead, with the winter slowdown near, the rebar rebound may not last, but December scrap buying should support costs, so long products are expected to hold at high levels and HRC to move in a narrow range.

European mills kept pushing Q1 offers this week on tighter supply, but distributors focused on destocking. NW European HRC held at EUR 754/tonne EXW (about USD 846/tonne), while Italian HRC rose EUR 5/tonne to EUR 749/tonne EXW (about USD 841/tonne). Northern mills booked Q1 deals at EUR 760/tonne DDP (about USD 853/tonne). An Italian re-roller tried to raise offers, but buyers did not accept. The closure of ADI’s hot end leaves a crude steel gap of nearly 2 million tonnes a year, and re-rollers are buying imported slab. On imports, Türkiye’s and India’s Q4 HRC quotas are exhausted, and Vietnam’s fell to about 3.8 kt this week. Imported stock in port was listed at EUR 730–760/tonne DDP (about USD 819–853/tonne), and a UK supplier offered Spain EUR 725/tonne CFR (about USD 814/tonne), CBAM included. In long products, Italian rebar rose EUR 5/tonne to EUR 750/tonne EXW (about USD 842/tonne), while wire rod held at EUR 705/tonne DAP (about USD 791/tonne). European domestic HDG stood at EUR 870–880/tonne EXW (about USD 976–988/tonne), and Vietnamese HDG for Q1 shipment was offered at USD 850–900/tonne CFR Spain. Looking ahead, mills still want higher prices but buyers purchase only against orders, so HRC ex-works prices are expected to edge up.