[SMM Europe Weekly Review] Mills push Q1 offers on tight supply as distributors destock and import quotas run short

Indian HRC export prices held at 650USD/tonne FOB India for Europe, 580USD/tonne for the Middle East and 555USD/tonne for Southeast Asia. Fresh firm offers and confirmed bookings remained limited ahead of Diwali. Europe continued to offer the highest nominal export realisation, while lower Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian prices restricted mills’ interest in overseas sales. Competitive Indonesian supply into Vietnam also limited opportunities for Indian material. Domestically, Mumbai HRC was at 656.5USD/tonne (62,475INR/tonne) EXW, excluding 18% GST. Market participants reported that some mills had raised prices by approximately 5–8USD/tonne (500–750INR/tonne), while others could implement increases after Diwali. Earlier maintenance and higher coking-coal costs supported sellers’ pricing intentions, although cautious purchasing limited evidence of acceptance at the revised levels. Domestic sales continued to offer more attractive returns than exports to the Middle East and Southeast Asia. Billet export indications remained at 460–470USD/tonne FOB India, with fresh transactions unconfirmed. Traders found the prices unviable amid a relatively firm domestic market and, therefore, continued to focus on the latter. Trading is expected to remain subdued through the holidays. Post-Diwali distributor restocking and acceptance of revised mill offers will determine whether domestic HRC increases hold. For billet and scrap, stronger finished-steel sales will be needed to support sustained procurement.

Iranian trade was thin this week as US-Iran talks stalled and the Strait of Hormuz stayed disrupted, and export offers held. After a US strike on Qeshm Island on 2 Nov, Iran said it would not reopen the strait until the US answered its conditions. With sea routes blocked, exports still rely mainly on overland sales to the Iraqi border and small lots to Oman and the UAE. The latest billet offers held at USD 420–440/tonne FOB/FCA, and mills refused to sell below USD 420/tonne FOB. Slab producers held USD 430–435/tonne FOB against bids of USD 405–410/tonne FOB, with no export deals again this week. Competing material weakened: Chinese billet was offered at USD 453–457/tonne FOB, and Indonesian billet fell to USD 465–468/tonne FOB. In HRC, Russian material sold at USD 570/tonne CFR MENA, another Middle East cargo traded at USD 580/tonne CFR, and Dubai HRC held at USD 595/tonne CFR. Iranian HRC had sold earlier at USD 545–560/tonne FCA Iraqi border, but new orders remain stalled. Gulf long products are oversupplied: UAE rebar supply is about 0.60 million tonnes a month against demand of about 0.50 million tonnes. Dubai mills offer AED 2750/tonne CPT (about USD 749/tonne), excluding VAT, and some cut November prices, weakening demand for Iranian billet. Looking ahead, without a breakthrough in talks, logistics will keep limiting Iranian exports, so offers are expected to hold with a softer bias.

Turkish long products rebounded clearly this week on post-holiday restocking and firmer scrap, while flat products stalled under EU quota limits. Rebar rose USD 20/tonne to USD 615/tonne EXW, excluding VAT. Export rebar held at USD 605/tonne FOB, with 5 kt from Iskenderun sold at USD 600/tonne FOB and 3.5 kt from Marmara at USD 607/tonne FOB, both for November shipment. On costs, Turkish mills bought at least seven deep-sea scrap cargoes for December shipment in a week, mainly from the UK and Northern Europe. First-round HMS 1/2 80:20 deals were at USD 395–398.5/tonne CFR. In semi-finished steel, domestic billet recovered to USD 565/tonne EXW, while imported billet held at USD 520/tonne CFR. Chinese billet for January shipment was offered at USD 515–520/tonne CFR. Black Sea billet rose USD 5/tonne to USD 465/tonne FOB, but almost no trades took place. In flat products, HRC fell USD 5/tonne to USD 620/tonne EXW. Export HRC rose USD 5/tonne to USD 615/tonne FOB. The EU HRC quota is exhausted, and about 0.45 million tonnes of steel sits at ports awaiting clearance on 1 Jan. Imported HRC rose USD 3/tonne to USD 548/tonne CFR. Looking ahead, with the winter slowdown near, the rebar rebound may not last, but December scrap buying should support costs, so long products are expected to hold at high levels and HRC to move in a narrow range.