Today, SMM's 10:00 a.m. price for the Shanghai Gold Exchange Ag (T+D) was 11,798 yuan/kg, with the premium/discount range quoted at TD+5 to +15 yuan/kg and a weighted average price of 8.17 yuan/kg; against the most-traded SHFE 2612 contract, it was at a discount of 25-15 yuan/kg.
On the macro front, US September JOLTS job openings and factory orders data came in strong; the US dollar index stopped falling and stabilized after touching a one-month low, closing up 0.01% at 101.861; the 10-year US Treasury yield rose 5.1 bp to 4.966%. Geopolitically, signals of a negotiation impasse were dense, with a senior Iranian official saying it was "still far from reaching an agreement," and Iran's Foreign Ministry stating there was no new progress in the talks. As a result, precious metals returned to a bearish bias in the short term, giving back gains the day after the rebound as bearish factors on the rates front materialized.
In the spot market, the basis narrowed to around 25-30 yuan/kg today, with morning offers in Shanghai concentrated at a discount of 20-10 yuan/kg against SHFE 2612. Some traders reported limited inventory and held prices firm, with the high end of quotes edging up slightly, while some low-priced offers remained in the market. Silver prices consolidated in a narrow range at low levels, and downstream purchasing sentiment was moderate today, dominated by purchasing as needed in appropriate amounts, with transactions concentrated at a small premium to TD.
Overall, the macro front was pressured by strong economic data and the geopolitical negotiation impasse, pushing precious metals back into a bearish trend in the short term; on the spot side, low silver prices stimulated some purchasing as needed, but overall trading sentiment was average, and the market remained in narrow-range consolidation amid the tug-of-war between low inventory and low-priced supply.
