SMM News, November 4:
In October 2026, the national weighted average total cost of alumina was 2,764 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton month on month; the weighted average cash cost was 2,592 yuan/ton. Alumina costs continued their mild upward trend in October. Bauxite and caustic soda prices were broadly stable, and the main factor affecting prices remained thermal coal; driven by higher coal prices, overall costs rose slightly.
By cost component:
Bauxite: Overall ore costs rose slightly in October. Among imported ore, overseas freight for Guinean ore edged down, long-term contracts continued to be executed, and bulk carrier freight declined slightly; the monthly average Guinean CIF assessment price was USD 71.32/ton, down 0.31% month on month. Although the domestic ore market improved somewhat, overall supply remained tight and prices stayed high; spot bauxite prices in Guizhou rose, pushing costs higher. The increase in domestic ore prices largely offset the decline in imported ore prices, leaving national ore costs broadly stable.
Caustic soda and energy: In October, long-term contract caustic soda procurement prices across regions remained unchanged from September and stayed stable. Coal prices rose overall, providing continued support for alumina energy costs. The average price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port in October was 1,014 yuan/ton, up 3.7% month on month, the main driver of the cost increase in October. According to SMM, long-term contract prices for liquid caustic soda procurement in November will be markedly lowered: the delivered price in Guangxi will be cut by 150 yuan/ton to 2,500 yuan/ton, and in Shanxi by 200 yuan/ton to 2,000 yuan/ton, which will become the main downward factor for costs. On the energy side, although thermal coal prices have retreated from their highs, winter stockpiling continues and hydropower has entered the dry season; coal prices are expected to remain high in the fourth quarter, and energy costs are unlikely to fall significantly.
Overall, the upward cost pressure in October was concentrated on the fuel side. With ocean freight declining, imported ore costs came under pressure, while bauxite inventories at domestic alumina plants rose to a high of about 94 days, constraining buyers' willingness to chase prices and limiting upside for ore prices, which were broadly stable. Caustic soda prices remained stable, and the cost center shifted slightly lower than in October; the industry's cash cost support level also moved down accordingly, weakening the cost-side floor for spot prices.
The national weighted average total cost of alumina in November is expected to run in the range of 2,700–2,800 yuan/ton, with the weighted average cash cost projected at 2,530–2,630 yuan/ton.
![SHFE aluminum continues to fall, price spread between futures contracts widens, spot premiums fall under pressure [SMM Aluminum Spot Midday Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/iCOMR20251217171653.jpg)
![Limited demand growth and persistent cost constraints keep ADC12 prices in the doldrums [ADC12 Price Daily Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/jMeFI20251217171722.jpeg)
