Nov 4 Alumina Morning Comment
Futures Market: Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2701 contract opened at 2,611, hit an intraday high of 2,641 and a low of 2,611, and settled at 2,632. Trading volume decreased by 19,215 to 67,505 lots, while open interest increased by 1,321 to 233,000 lots, showing a pattern of shrinking volume with rising open interest. From the price action, prices drifted higher after a lower open, closing at 2,632 and holding above all major moving averages: the MA5 (2,629.4), MA10 (2,613.7), MA20 (2,593.7), and MA40 (2,621.52). The short-term moving average system maintained a bullish alignment, and the technical picture extended the firm tone following the rebound from lows. Trading volume continued to shrink while open interest edged up, reflecting a standoff between bulls and bears with modest position building on both sides. Capital chasing the rally remained limited, and the market was still dominated by existing positions, with sentiment staying cautious. Overall, prices held above all major moving averages on shrinking volume, and the short-term trend is firm. If support around the MA5 (2,629.4) can be held going forward, the rebound is expected to continue. However, persistently insufficient trading volume suggests limited upward momentum, and attention should be paid to confirmation via volume expansion and resistance overhead.
Bauxite: As of November 3, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite CIF index stood at $71.68/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of high-grade bauxite (Shanxi) was reported at 595 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; low-grade bauxite (Shanxi) averaged 550 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; high-grade bauxite (Henan) averaged 590 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; low-grade bauxite (Henan) averaged 520 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; high-grade bauxite (Guangxi) averaged 365 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; low-grade bauxite (Guangxi) averaged 327.5 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; high-grade bauxite (Guizhou) averaged 515 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; low-grade bauxite (Guizhou) averaged 420 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; Guiyang bauxite (60%/6.0) averaged 535 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was reported at $67.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was reported at $60.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinean bauxite FOB average price was reported at $40/dmt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinean bauxite CIF average price was reported at $71/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the Malaysian bauxite CIF average price was reported at $52/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) average price was reported at $62.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the Ghanaian bauxite CIF average price was reported at $78/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the Indonesian bauxite FOB average price was reported at $38/mt in physical content, up $1/mt from the previous trading day; the bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was reported at $72.5/dmt, flat from the previous trading day; the bauxite FOB (Pakistan) average price was reported at $58.5/dmt, flat from the previous trading day.
Alumina Spot: On November 3, the SMM alumina index was reported at 2,645.51 yuan/mt, down 0.52 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Shandong alumina index was reported at 2,635.81 yuan/mt, down 0.17 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Henan alumina index was reported at 2,666.42 yuan/mt, down 0.55 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Shanxi alumina index was reported at 2,665.48 yuan/mt, down 1 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guizhou alumina index was reported at 2,674.47 yuan/mt, down 0.9 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guangxi alumina index was reported at 2,567.62 yuan/mt, down 0.83 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
Basis Daily: According to SMM data, on November 3, the SMM alumina index stood at a premium of 7.51 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30 a.m.
Warrant Daily: On November 3, total registered alumina warrants were reported at 204,200 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Shandong were reported at 0 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Henan were reported at 0 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Guangxi were reported at 48,396 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Gansu were reported at 18,244 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang were reported at 137,200 mt, flat from the previous trading day.
Ex-China Market: As of November 3, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $394/mt, the ocean freight rate was $38.35/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.68. This price translates to an ex-works selling price of about 3,346.82 yuan/mt at major domestic ports, which is 701.31 yuan/mt above the alumina index price.
Summary: Overall transaction prices in the ex-China market moved higher, and the price spread between China and ex-China markets continued to widen. Export transaction prices rose accordingly, and China's alumina export window is expected to gradually open going forward, which would divert some domestic supply and ease pressure on the Chinese market to a certain extent. However, domestic supply remains ample overall, with production staying high and inventory continuing to accumulate, creating clear overhead resistance to prices. The export positive is unlikely to reverse the fundamentally loose supply-demand situation in China. Some enterprises in north China have already begun production line technological transformation, which may have a certain impact on production, but the extent of short-term supply contraction is limited. On the inventory side, despite localized maintenance, supply is still being released continuously, and total national alumina inventory is expected to maintain an inventory buildup trend. Inventory buildup pressure will constrain the room for price rebounds. On the price front, the support from export expectations amid the recovery in ex-China transaction prices is intertwined with the pressure from ample domestic supply and high inventory. Overall, prices are expected to consolidate at lows, with insufficient upward momentum, making it difficult to form a sustained upward trend in the short term.
[All data other than public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.]
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