Maintenance Cuts Fail to Reverse Weak Demand; Iron Ore Futures and Spot Prices Decline Together [SMM Iron Ore Daily Review]

ArcelorMittal is expanding its iron ore operations in Liberia, with plans to build the country's first iron ore concentrator alongside major infrastructure works including rail and port facilities. The expansion covers mining, rail and port assets with an investment footprint of nearly US$4 billion, and is intended to support higher volumes of premium iron ore exports to international steel markets. Under the company's export target, its Liberian volumes are to rise from less than 5 million mt in 2024 to above 20 million mt in 2027. [SMM Iron Ore]

HRC futures remained weak and fluctuated today, with the most-traded HC2701 contract closing at 3,147 yuan/mt, down 0.54% intraday. Spot market transaction prices fell 10 yuan/mt from the previous session, with intraday deals generally on the weak side. News flow was mixed. Intraday reports said Mongolian coal customs clearance resumed, leading coking coal lower. Meanwhile, talk that coke producers would stabilize prices and ensure supply, and that the three major mills would make additional production cuts of 5%-8%, both underpinned finished steel prices and capped the upside. In terms of supply, HRC impact from maintenance this week was 144,400 mt, up 17,100 mt WoW. Next week, HRC impact from maintenance is expected at 218,300 mt, up 74,000 mt WoW, with production continuing to pull back. On the demand side, northern regions are gradually entering the construction off-season, outdoor project procurement volume is seeing a seasonal pullback, and the slower pace of manufacturing order recovery is keeping sheets and coils under pressure. With cost decline offsetting supply contraction expectations, HRC prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the near term, with focus on whether market news actually materializes.