SMM, October 31:
In late October, the petroleum coke market overall showed a "divergent stalemate, mixed performance" trend, with clear divergence across grades. Low-sulphur petroleum coke held steady, while mid- and high-sulphur petroleum coke softened in some areas. High crude oil prices currently provide cost support, but with month-end approaching, downstream carbon enterprises showed insufficient willingness to restock in concentrated volumes, maintaining just-in-time procurement as needed. Market transactions struggled to expand. Low-sulphur petroleum coke remained firm on stable order scheduling, and the overall market fell into a stalemate.
In terms of prices, north-east China 1# low-sulphur petroleum coke prices were firm, with no change during the week; Shandong 2# petroleum coke was the weakest grade in this period, with prices continuing to decline; Shandong 3# petroleum coke consolidated, while Shandong 4# high-sulphur petroleum coke showed relatively strong performance. The latest SMM data shows that the north-east China 1# petroleum coke spot price index closed at 4,655.48 yuan/mt, flat WoW; the Shandong 2# petroleum coke spot price index closed at 4,266.36 yuan/mt, down 0.78% WoW; the Shandong 3# petroleum coke spot price index closed at 3,764.23 yuan/mt, up 0.63% WoW; the Shandong 4# petroleum coke spot price index closed at 2,648.01 yuan/mt, up 0.96% WoW; the north-west 3# petroleum coke spot price index closed at 4,209.96 yuan/mt, flat WoW.
On the supply side, delayed coking units at China's major state-owned and independent refineries operated steadily overall, with no concentrated maintenance plans, and domestic petroleum coke supply was ample. Refineries in north-east China maintained stable order scheduling for low-sulphur petroleum coke, with cargoes mainly delivered to designated buyers. Shandong refineries showed divergent shipment paces, while operating rates remained relatively stable. At ports, imported petroleum coke arrivals in Shandong were concentrated, and overall inventory growth was notable. On the demand side, China's operating aluminum capacity stayed high, and anode enterprises maintained stable operating rates, making just-in-time procurement of high-sulphur petroleum coke such as Shandong 3# and 4#. However, anode enterprises kept raw material inventory at reasonable levels, mostly purchasing as needed in small batches, with limited willingness to stockpile proactively. Anode material industry operating rates were stable, with cautious procurement. North-east low-sulphur petroleum coke was mainly delivered under long-term contracts, with insufficient spot demand growth. Downstream sectors such as graphite electrodes and recarburizers maintained sporadic just-in-time procurement, providing little new demand boost.
Overall, as refinery maintenance gradually winds down, the release of domestic supply growth continues, while imported coke keeps arriving at ports and downstream buyers become increasingly cautious about high prices, the market remains under broad pressure. However, expectations of phased stockpiling at the start of the month may provide temporary support for transactions, though the support is likely to be short-lived and insufficient to reverse the loose supply backdrop. Looking ahead, domestic refinery operating rates are expected to remain broadly stable in the near term, with no significant contraction in domestic supply, while the pattern of continued imported coke arrivals at ports stays unchanged. At the same time, close attention should be paid to the recent tightening of regional environmental protection-related controls, which has restricted operations at some carbon enterprises and created downside risks for petroleum coke demand, potentially disrupting the rigid demand support for high-sulphur petroleum coke. Over the next 1-2 weeks, China's petroleum coke market is expected to maintain a structurally divergent trend: low-sulphur petroleum coke will remain largely stable, while mid and high-sulphur petroleum coke will stay relatively steady on the back of rigid demand from prebaked anode, though the support underneath has weakened due to operating uncertainty caused by environmental protection-related controls, with greater price fluctuation elasticity than in the previous period.
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