Pr-Nd downtrend center shifts lower; gadolinium falls while holmium rises, showing divergent trends [SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review]

October 22 news:

Rare earth ore:

This week, mainstream reference prices for rare earth carbonate were lowered to 59,300-59,500 yuan/mt. Ore-side quotations edged down slightly along with weaker oxides. Separation plants prioritized consuming raw materials on hand, and restocking remained just-in-time. The price spread between buyers and sellers had yet to narrow, and actual transactions were limited. Rare earth chloride flakes held at 63,000-64,000 yuan/mt. Seller quotations showed no adjustment, and downstream buyers made small purchases according to production plans, lacking support from bulk deals. Medium-yttrium, europium-rich ore pulled back to 244,000-246,000 yuan/mt. Ore-side willingness to hold prices firm did not strengthen, and quotations from upstream and downstream still showed a gap, with transactions remaining sluggish. Monazite held steady at 41,000-45,000 yuan/mt. Both supply and demand showed no improvement, and inquiries were sporadic.

Rare earth oxides:

This week, lanthanum oxide prices held steady at 5,500-6,000 yuan/mt, and cerium oxide prices held steady at 13,800-14,200 yuan/mt. Downstream buying interest for lanthanum and cerium products was insufficient, and shipments relied on long-term contract execution and sporadic just-in-time procurement, leaving prices without momentum for adjustment. As of today, Pr-Nd oxide prices were lowered to 732,000-734,000 yuan/mt. The pullback in futures drove spot quotation centers notably lower. Suppliers increased price concessions to sell, and low-priced cargoes became more available than earlier. Metal plants made just-in-time procurement on dips according to production plans, but actual transactions did not expand.

This week, dysprosium oxide prices held steady at 1.4-1.42 million yuan/mt. Divergence between dysprosium buyers and sellers persisted, with sellers cautious about concessions and buyers continuing to push for lower prices, leaving trading in a stalemate. Terbium oxide prices were lowered to 6.33-6.37 million yuan/mt. Low-priced cargoes increased from earlier, and the weak atmosphere remained unchanged. Metal plants turned more conservative in purchasing, and actual deals mostly settled at the low end of the range. Gadolinium oxide prices were lowered to 178,000-182,000 yuan/mt, falling in tandem with Pr-Nd and posting one of the largest declines. Suppliers' willingness to sell rose while buyers stayed on the sidelines, and transactions were sluggish. Holmium oxide prices were raised to 660,000-665,000 yuan/mt. Holmium bucked the trend and strengthened, with oxide gains among the largest, but whether transactions can follow remains to be seen. Erbium oxide prices were further raised to 720,000-740,000 yuan/mt. Quotation centers continued to move up, but after the sharp rise, supplier shipments were limited and downstream purchasing turned cautious. Yttrium oxide (5N) prices moved up to 58,000-62,000 yuan/mt, and yttrium oxide (3N) prices were raised to 34,000-35,000 yuan/mt. Demand-side follow-through was insufficient and actual deals were limited, leaving the price rise without transaction support.

Rare earth metals:

In light rare earths, cerium metal market prices edged down slightly this week, with supplier quotation ranges narrowing to 28,000-28,500 yuan/mt. Pr-Nd alloy prices drifted lower overall this week. Early in the week, driven by lower Pr-Nd oxide prices, suppliers made price concessions to sell, and metal enterprises adjusted quotations accordingly. Mid-week, although Pr-Nd oxide quotation centers moved down slightly, mainstream quotations from suppliers remained high and the willingness to hold prices firm showed no loosening. Low-priced cargoes in the market did not increase, and on the metal side, losses limited room for concessions, with quotations temporarily supported. Near the weekend, Pr-Nd oxide quotation centers fell notably, and metal prices followed lower, though the decline was still smaller than that of oxides. As of today, supplier quotations were adjusted to 885,000-892,000 yuan/mt. Downstream purchasing maintained a just-in-time pace, inquiry activity was low, actual order uptake was insufficient, and transaction follow-through was weak.

In medium-heavy rare earths, dysprosium-iron alloy closed at 1.365-1.375 million yuan/mt. Prices held steady this week, with supplier quotations unchanged. Downstream inquiries were stable, and transactions were mainly small just-in-time orders. Terbium metal prices edged down slightly this week, closing at 7.88-7.95 million yuan/mt, mainly due to persistent difficulty in high-priced transactions. Metal enterprises increased price concessions to sell, and quotations were lowered accordingly. Near the weekend, the decline narrowed and quotations stopped falling and stabilized, but actual market transactions remained scarce. Gadolinium-iron alloy prices fell notably this week, with supplier quotations adjusted to 171,000-173,000 yuan/mt, mainly due to the linked weakness in Pr-Nd products and continuous downward adjustments on the raw material side. Mid-week, some suppliers temporarily suspended quotations and waited on the sidelines. Near the weekend, quotations moved further down, market inquiries were limited, and actual transactions were sluggish. Holmium-iron alloy prices were raised to 660,000-665,000 yuan/mt this week, mainly driven by increased export orders and tighter low-priced cargoes. Supplier quotations moved up slightly for consecutive days, making holmium the only rising product among medium-heavy rare earths this week. However, downstream inquiry and purchasing attitudes remained wait-and-see, and actual transaction follow-through was limited.

NdFeB blanks:

Currently, NdFeB blank N38 (Ce) closed at 211-221 yuan/kg; NdFeB blank 38M closed at 249-269 yuan/kg; NdFeB blank 40H closed at 261-271 yuan/kg; NdFeB blank 45SH (Ce) closed at 311-331 yuan/kg.

In terms of prices, NdFeB prices edged down slightly this week. The core reason was that falling raw material prices, combined with continued bearishness among downstream motor and end-user manufacturers, ultimately led to lower NdFeB prices. In terms of trading, NdFeB market transaction volumes were average this week. The reason was that raw material prices continued to decline this week, and motor plants and end-user manufacturers lowered their expectations for subsequent domestic demand. Magnetic steel purchasing was limited to just-in-time restocking, and no large-scale restocking occurred yet.

NdFeB scrap:

This week, Pr-Nd recycled from NdFeB scrap closed at 735-745 yuan/kg; dysprosium recycled from NdFeB scrap closed at 1,230-1,250 yuan/kg; terbium recycled from NdFeB scrap closed at 5,600-5,800 yuan/kg.

This week, scrap market prices showed a sustained downward trend overall, mainly driven by the pullback in Pr-Nd oxide prices. Early in the week, scrap prices held steady. Recycling enterprises made no notable adjustments to external purchase quotations, just-in-time procurement activity was limited, scrap suppliers showed average willingness to sell, and market trading sentiment was sluggish. Mid-week, Pr-Nd oxide prices pulled back slightly, and recycling enterprises lowered their purchase quotations accordingly. Scrap prices followed lower, and purchasing was mainly characterized by price suppression and limited volumes. Suppliers turned wait-and-see in their selling attitude, and overall market wait-and-see sentiment was strong. Near the weekend, Pr-Nd oxide prices continued to decline. Scrap-side inventory was relatively ample, and recycling enterprises showed weak willingness to purchase at high prices. Purchase quotations were lowered for consecutive days, and scrap prices pulled back further. Subsequently, the decline on the oxide side slowed and market wait-and-see sentiment rebounded somewhat, but actual trading performance was average.