Spot Prices Return to Premium, but Trading Improvement Is Limited [SMM Shandong Copper Cathode Spot Weekly Review]

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SMM recorded social inventory in Shanghai at 51,100 mt, down 8,200 mt WoW; social inventory in Jiangsu stood at 21,200 mt, down 2,000 mt WoW. Regional inventory continued to destock, reflecting relatively limited arrivals in the market recently. On the demand side, some downstream processing enterprises still made just-in-time procurement during the day, but with spot premiums and the backwardation in the next-month spread both staying at relatively high levels, downstream comprehensive procurement costs remained elevated, which continued to constrain their ability to absorb spot cargoes. On the supply side, although some domestic cargoes have arrived gradually recently, the overall growth was relatively limited. In addition, affected by typhoon expectations, some ports reported that vessels have already taken shelter measures, and the pace of imported copper arrivals at ports may be disrupted in the short term, with some cargoes likely to be delayed. Overall, low inventory and slow import replenishment are expected to continue supporting spot premiums, but the high premium and high backwardation structure will continue to limit downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Shanghai spot premiums are expected to continue to consolidate at highs tomorrow, with further upside likely to be relatively limited.