SMM, October 22:
According to customs data, China's aluminum extrusion exports totaled 92,700 mt in September 2026, up 0.2% MoM and up 26.5% YoY. Cumulative exports from January to September reached 722,300 mt, up 10.7% YoY. September exports hit a new monthly high for 2026. Aluminum extrusion exports have shifted from the Q2 recovery phase to a high-level plateau, with total volumes holding steady near 90,000 mt for three consecutive months. 
By province, September was characterized by basically stable overall volumes but significant shifts in provincial structure. Among traditional production hubs, Guangdong exported 42,600 mt, accounting for 45.9%, up 200 mt or 0.4% MoM, basically flat. Shandong stood above 12,000 mt for both August and September, making it one of the more stable export provinces currently. Incremental growth came from Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shaanxi, and Guangxi: Jiangsu added 1,300 mt, up 33.0% MoM; Zhejiang added 1,100 mt, up 46.3% MoM; Shaanxi added 1,100 mt, up 67.1% MoM; and Guangxi added 900 mt, up 29.4% MoM. The four provinces combined added approximately 4,400 mt. This mix differs from August's structure, which was dominated by Guangdong alone, with growth sources relatively more dispersed. Declines were concentrated in three areas: Hainan fell from 4,800 mt in August to 1,900 mt, a decrease of 2,900 mt or down 60.3% MoM, ending its streak of three consecutive months above 2,900 mt. September exports pulled back in stages after the release of free trade port closure factors. Inner Mongolia fell from 2,000 mt to 1,100 mt, a decrease of 900 mt or down 43.0% MoM. Fujian pulled back slightly from 7,600 mt to 7,000 mt, down 8.9% MoM.
By export destination, the top five destinations in September totaled 29,500 mt, accounting for 31.8% of the total, slightly higher than August's top five of 28,900 mt and 31.2%. With total volumes basically flat, concentration rose rather than fell, but trends within the five countries diverged notably. Malaysia was 7,300 mt, accounting for 7.9%, down 7.6% MoM and up 55.3% YoY. Vietnam was 7,200 mt, accounting for 7.7%, up 7.5% MoM and down 25.0% YoY. Israel was 5,600 mt, accounting for 6.0%, down 11.1% MoM, versus only 1,000 mt in the same period last year. Australia was 4,800 mt, accounting for 5.2%, up 26.3% MoM and up 23.1% YoY. Nigeria was 4,600 mt, accounting for 5.0%, up 9.5% MoM and up 100% YoY. Australia and Nigeria were the only two markets among the top five with both positive MoM and YoY growth. Malaysia and Israel pulled back MoM but remained significantly higher YoY. Vietnam was the only market among the top five with a YoY decline, as the local aluminum extrusion substitution effect continues. By region, Southeast Asia was 25,700 mt, accounting for 27.7%, still the largest region, down 3.0% MoM. Africa was 18,200 mt, accounting for 19.6%, down 2.2% MoM. The six Middle Eastern countries combined totaled 1,900 mt, accounting for 2.1%, down 0.8% MoM. All three major regions were negative MoM simultaneously. Supporting this month's total were non-EU Europe at 4,500 mt (up 28.6% MoM), Oceania at 5,700 mt (up 18.8% MoM), Northeast Asia at 4,300 mt (up 10.3% MoM), and Latin America at 15,000 mt (up 4.2% MoM). These four regions combined added approximately 2,900 mt net, largely offsetting the declines in major regions. Overall, the trend of orders dispersing from a few large markets to multiple small and medium-sized markets continues, with the impact of single-market fluctuations on total volumes correspondingly diminishing.
By trade mode, Ordinary Trade exports in September were 79,900 mt, accounting for 86.2%, down 1.1 percentage points from August's 87.3%, with absolute volume down 1.1% MoM. Processing trade with supplied materials exports were 6,500 mt, accounting for 7.0%, up 0.8 percentage points from August's 6.2%, up 13.7% MoM. Processing trade with imported materials exports were 4,700 mt, accounting for 5.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from August, down 8.0% MoM. The share of Ordinary Trade has declined for two consecutive months, with processing trade serving as a marginal supplement.
September aluminum extrusion exports were basically flat MoM, but the structure has shifted compared with August: Guangdong's concentrated shipment momentum faded, Hainan's surge pulled back, and incremental growth shifted to multiple sources from Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shaanxi, and Guangxi. By destination, the three major markets contracted simultaneously, with non-EU Europe, Oceania, Northeast Asia, and Latin America playing an offsetting role. The continued decline in Ordinary Trade share, offset by processing trade, also indicates that price-driven independent order-taking momentum is still weakening. According to producer feedback, overall export conditions in August and September changed little. A Fujian producer noted that after entering October, the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets has continued to narrow, and with rising shipping costs, the cost advantages of aluminum extrusion exports have weakened, with export volumes expected to pull back mildly going forward. A Henan producer also reported that after Australia issued an affirmative preliminary anti-dumping ruling on Chinese aluminum doors and windows, local clients' willingness to import Chinese aluminum extrusion has been affected, and related export orders have already shrunk. Overall, the rise in January-September cumulative growth mainly stems from the low base of the same period last year, and export order demand is expected to pull back. October aluminum extrusion exports are expected to land between 83,000 and 90,000 mt, with the Q4 midpoint shifting down from Q3 to 79,000-86,000 mt, and the full-year total landing between 950,000 and 990,000 mt.
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