[SMM Analysis] China's Cobalt Hydrometallurgical Intermediate Product Imports Rose 78% MoM in September 2026

Imports: Delayed Cargoes Arrived Concentratedly, Bonded Warehousing Share Jumped

Of the intermediate products imported from the DRC this month, around 9,160 physical mt entered Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces as logistics goods under customs special supervision, accounting for 65.5% of China's total imports; general trade stood at around 3,777 physical mt, or 27.0%; and processing trade with imported materials was around 683 physical mt, or 4.9%. In addition, China imported around 341 physical mt of intermediate products from Russia through processing trade with imported materials, and around 27 physical mt from South Africa through general trade. In terms of structural changes, this month's import rebound was almost entirely driven by the surge in bonded logistics cargoes: bonded imports in September rose about 1.5 times from 3,682 physical mt in August, with their share jumping from 46.8% to 65.5%; while general trade imports were largely flat MoM, holding at around 3,800 physical mt. This indicates that smelters' rigid demand for raw material procurement showed no significant improvement, and arriving cargoes were mostly warehoused for observation, with limited volumes actually entering domestic circulation.

There are two main reasons for the sharp rebound in imports this month. First, shipments delayed in August as typhoons "Dolphin" and "Saudel" disrupted operations at ports along the East China coast were concentrated into arrivals in September. Second, the DRC's actual shipments remained high in the earlier period. According to DRC CTCPM data, the DRC's cobalt exports in June 2026 were around 11,800 metal mt in a single month, up 92.9% MoM, accounting for 48.9% of Q2 exports. Given that shipping from Durban to China typically takes about two months, the cargoes shipped out concentratedly in the earlier period arrived successively in September. In addition, the 44% YoY increase in imports this month also reflected a base effect — in September 2025, the impact of the DRC's export policy had not fully faded, and imports that month were only 9,719 physical mt, below the level of a normal year.

Prices: Cobalt Salt and Intermediate Product Prices Continued to Fall, Payability Coefficient Dropped to 69% at Month-End

On the price front, domestic cobalt salt and intermediate product prices continued their resonant decline in September. The low-end price of cobalt sulfate fell from around 70,000 yuan/mt at the beginning of the month to around 60,000 yuan/mt at month-end, a drop of about 14% within the month; the low-end price of cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) fell from 18/lb at the beginning of the month to 14.5/lb at month-end, a drop of about 19%, a steeper decline than that of cobalt salts. In terms of the payability coefficient, the low-end payability coefficient of cobalt intermediate product feed (against SMM's average cobalt sulfate price) fell all the way from 77% at the beginning of the month to 69% at month-end. Smelters continued to press down raw material procurement coefficients amid falling cobalt salt prices and cost inversion pressure, miners' tenders remained difficult to conclude, and the price divergence between buyers and sellers persisted. In terms of the average import price, China's cobalt hydrometallurgical intermediate product import average price was $13,828/physical mt in September 2026, down 10.8% MoM. China's cumulative imports of cobalt hydrometallurgical intermediate products in January-September 2026 totaled 58,780 physical mt, down 80% YoY.

Outlook: Tug-of-War Between Arrival Realization and Weak Demand Continues, Height of Future Arrivals Remains Uncertain

Looking ahead, the bullish and bearish factors for intermediate product imports remain in a tug-of-war. On the bullish side, first, cargoes corresponding to the DRC's earlier high shipments will continue to arrive; second, bonded inventories were significantly replenished in September, and if smelters start restocking, bonded cargoes can be quickly converted into domestic supply. On the bearish side, cobalt salt prices had not stopped falling in October, with the low-end price of cobalt sulfate falling to around 50,000 yuan/mt after the holiday, smelters' willingness to purchase raw materials remained low, and some cargoes on the miners' side were still being stored in Africa or Southeast Asia pending market changes. The payability coefficient of cobalt intermediate products rebounded from 69% to around 78% in mid-October, but this rebound was mainly because cobalt sulfate prices fell too sharply after the holiday while intermediate product feed prices declined relatively slowly, passively pushing up the coefficient — it is not a signal of recovering intermediate product transactions. Before cobalt salt prices stop falling, smelters' procurement willingness is unlikely to recover significantly. Overall, the trajectory of China's cobalt intermediate product imports going forward still depends on whether cobalt salt prices can bottom out and on smelters' restocking pace, and the height of arrivals remains uncertain.