Long-short tug of war, deadlock unbroken, SHFE lead 2612 contract moves sideways [Lead Futures Brief Comment]

SMM, October 21:

Intraday, the SHFE lead 2612 contract opened at 16,135 yuan/mt, consolidated in the 16,120-16,150 yuan/mt range before midday, then saw its center move lower in the afternoon to close at 16,095 yuan/mt, down 65 yuan/mt or 0.40% from the previous trading day's closing price. Trading volume was 56,065 lots, open interest stood at 76,212 lots with an increase of 3,564 lots, and the daily candlestick closed as a small bearish candlestick. The price pulled back again below the middle Bollinger Band, driven by bearish position-building pressure, but with shrinking volume, the momentum for chasing shorts was limited. Recently, lead spot and futures have diverged, with tight spot cargo, warrant destocking, and production cuts among delivery brands providing support below the futures price. Macro sentiment remains complex and volatile, with mixed bullish and bearish news, while the peak consumption season in the downstream battery market is nearing its end, limiting upward momentum. In the short term, the SHFE lead 2612 contract is expected to continue consolidating on a subdued note above the 16,000 yuan mark.

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