Futures:
Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,887/mt. As the US dollar index weakened, LME lead gradually stopped falling and rebounded, attempting to return to $1,900/mt during European trading hours, but failed to do so, eventually settling at $1,885/mt, down 0.11%.
Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE lead 2612 contract opened at 16,045 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead fell sharply to as low as 16,015 yuan/mt, but lead ingot inventory destocking provided support for lead prices, and SHFE lead gradually recovered its losses and rebounded to 16,130 yuan/mt. Toward the close, SHFE lead lacked upward momentum and eventually settled at 16,075 yuan/mt, down 0.12%; open interest stood at 62,146 lots, up 2,724 lots from the previous trading day.
On the macro front:
Chinese market: China's Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Science and Technology plan to impose export controls on 40 technologies across three sectors—artificial intelligence, biomedicine, and PV—of which 14 are prohibited from export and 26 are restricted, with pre-export registration management implemented simultaneously.
Markets outside China: Fed Chairman Warsh said he would not prejudge the outcome of the interest rate meeting, and market bets on an October rate hike fell from about 27% to below 15%. The US federal fiscal deficit for fiscal year 2026 widened to $1.99 trillion, with net interest expenses exceeding $1 trillion for the first time and potentially surpassing Social Security spending by the end of 2028.
:
Last Friday in the lead spot market, SHFE lead continued to consolidate. Suppliers in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai offered few quotations. Among them, for primary lead smelters' Ex-works cargoes, north-south supply differences persisted, and mainstream production-area quotations were at premiums of 50-100 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. For secondary lead, regional supply was tight, and mainstream production-area secondary refined lead quotations remained at premiums of 50-100 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Inventory: As of October 16, LME lead inventory stood at 339,275 mt, down 525 mt from the previous trading day; total SHFE lead ingot inventory was 50,563 mt, down 5,423 mt from the previous week.
Lead price forecast for today:
Recently, the recovery in Chinese lead ingot supply has fallen short of expectations. Both primary lead and secondary lead are experiencing regional supply tightness, lead ingot inventory remains low, and spot prices against futures remain at premiums. Meanwhile, the SHFE lead 2611 and 2612 contracts have formed a backwardation structure, indicating strong resilience in lead prices, but lacking new upward momentum, prices are expected to remain in consolidation.
Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.
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