[SMM Analysis] Downside Risks for Cobalt Salt Prices Remain, Nickel Intermediate Product Payables Stay Weak This Week

Published: Oct 16, 2026 17:26 (GMT+8)

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This week, the MHP market supply-demand pattern remained relatively loose, with nickel and cobalt payables staying weak. On the supply side, after sulphur replenishment, some producers resumed MHP output, while some traders also released inventory to a certain extent recently. Although some enterprises still cut production due to high raw material prices, overall market availability was relatively sufficient. On the demand side, downstream nickel salt and cobalt salt prices remained sluggish, and losses from cobalt sulphate production kept pressure high, leaving salt plants with relatively low acceptance of high-priced MHP. As a result, MHP payables continued to decline recently. With supply rising and demand weak, MHP payables are likely to remain weak in the short term.

The high-grade nickel matte market continued to see weak supply and demand. On the supply side, mainstream suppliers have completed long-term order signing, leaving limited spot cargo available. On the demand side, high-grade nickel matte currently has no clear economic advantage over MHP, and actual consumption capacity is insufficient due to downstream production line compatibility constraints. Overall, purchasing sentiment in the market was weak, trading activity was low, and high-grade nickel matte payables remained stable.

This week, sulphur prices (CIF Indonesia) fell to $850-920/mt, with an average price of $885/mt, down $80/mt from the average of $965/mt on September 30. During the International Fertilizer Association conference, deals were concluded for Indonesian CIF prices below $900, pushing sulphur prices further down and lowering buyers' psychological price levels. The decline in spot prices caused by weak downstream demand for sulphur continues to weigh on the market, and sulphur prices (CIF Indonesia) are expected to have further downside next week.

On the nickel price front, nickel prices fell sharply this week, mainly dragged by nickel's weak fundamentals and macro expectations of interest rate hikes. MHP prices declined this week as nickel payables weakened, while high-grade nickel matte prices weakened in tandem with nickel prices. In addition, MHP cobalt prices dropped significantly due to lower cobalt payables. Overall, the intermediate product market is expected to remain under pressure in the short term.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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