On October 16, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) was reported at -$241.51/dmt, down $9.83/dmt from -$231.68/dmt in the previous period. The payable indicator for 20% grade domestic trade ore was reported at 98.5%-99.5%.
This week, spot trading activity for imported copper concentrates picked up somewhat, with some spot offers emerging. In terms of spot transactions, a trader sold 3,000 to 4,000 mt of Erdenet copper concentrates for January next year to a smelter at the average of the SMM and FM indices minus $16/dmt; another trader sold 20,000 to 30,000 mt of bundled clean ore to a smelter at the index minus $5/dmt, with shipment in November-December; a trader sold 10,000 mt of Antamina to a smelter at the index minus $18/dmt, with shipment in November; another trader sold bundled ore to a smelter, with clean ore priced at -$248/dmt for Q4 shipment, and some above-standard ore included, with TC above -$200/dmt. On the offer side, a trader offered 10,000 mt of clean ore at the index minus $18/dmt for November shipment, and some smelters countered at the average of the SMM and Fastmarkets indices. On the mine tender side, the previously tendered 10,000 mt of November Constancia was awarded at -$314/dmt on the trader side, QP: M+4; during the same period, the previously tendered 40,000 mt of 2027 Los Pelambres was awarded at -$334/dmt on the trader side; another 10,000 mt of November Centinela was transacted at -$310/dmt on the trader side. Smelters' acceptance of index-linked deductions and index-based transactions continued to decline, and the deduction range for index-related deals also narrowed, pulling back from the previous $20-25/dmt to around $5-15/dmt. Some smelters with procurement needs are currently bidding at around -$240/dmt, while smelters with relatively small procurement needs are taking a wait-and-see stance. Traders prefer to sell using indices, with index-based offers mostly at the index minus $15-20/dmt, and fixed-price offers mostly around -$250/dmt. Divergences between buyers and sellers over pricing methods and price levels persist, making some offers difficult to transact.
On October 15, BHP's Escondida copper mine reached a 36-month collective contract agreement with the No. 2 supervisors and staff union, with approximately 64% member support, and the strike was called off. Previously, the union had rejected the company's wage proposal on September 30 and voted in favor of a strike. BHP subsequently applied for mandatory government mediation, and negotiations took place from October 6 to 13. When mediation ended, the two sides still had not reached an agreement, and the union announced plans to launch a strike on the 14th. The two sides then resumed negotiations overnight, and after BHP improved its proposal, a preliminary agreement was reached, with both parties agreeing to extend mediation by one day for members to vote and complete signing. The final agreement was approved, and the short-term supply risk posed by the strike of approximately 1,020 supervisors and employees was resolved, with the mine maintaining normal production. Escondida produced 1.2612 million mt of copper in FY2026, with production guidance for FY2027 set at 1 million–1.1 million mt.
On 15 October, Zijin Mining's Bisha copper-zinc mine in Eritrea suspended ore processing operations from last week due to a regional temporary fuel shortage, and brought forward maintenance originally scheduled for year-end. Fuel supply has now stabilised, but the specific timing for resuming production remains unclear. Some clients have learned that the suspension is expected to last about four weeks, with copper and zinc concentrate deliveries facing delays. The mine produced approximately 23,000 mt of copper and 83,000 mt of zinc in 2025. The Asmara project, also located in Eritrea, disclosed in April 2026 that it had produced its first concentrates, and there is currently no news of it suspending production due to fuel shortages. SMM expects Eritrea's copper-in-concentrate production to be approximately 30,000 mt in 2026, with attention needed on the timing of Bisha's production resumption and the capacity ramp-up progress at Asmara.
As of 15 October, negotiations between Antofagasta's Centinela copper mine and the two major unions, Minera Esperanza and Distrito Centinela, had still not achieved a breakthrough. The strike has continued since 7 October, involving 709 employees, accounting for approximately 22% of the mine's direct workforce. The two sides initiated voluntary mediation on 13 October, but disputes over pay and benefit differences for similar positions remain unresolved. The miner stated that it has put forward a new proposal with improved economic terms, and the mine is currently maintaining normal production levels, with the actual impact on production yet to be tracked.
On 13 October, Yingkou Jianfa Shenghai's polymetallic recovery project officially began feeding material after completing approximately one month of furnace drying and commissioning, with Phase 1 entering the production stage. Phase 1 is planned to produce 300,000 mt of copper cathode per year, and after both phases reach full production, annual copper cathode output will reach 600,000 mt. The project uses copper concentrates as its main raw material, adopting "three-connected furnace" smelting and stainless steel cathode electrolysis processes, with a supporting phosphorus chemical project to consume by-product sulphuric acid and steam. Actual production and ramp-up arrangements have not yet been announced, and the subsequent commissioning progress will affect new copper concentrate procurement demand.
On 16 October 2026, SMM recorded copper concentrate inventory at the eleven ports at 698,800 mt in physical content, down 4,300 mt in physical content from 9 October. The main increases came from Nanjing Port and Qingdao Port, up 50,000 mt and 20,000 mt MoM respectively; the main decreases came from Fangchenggang Port, Jinzhou Port and Qinzhou Port, down 40,000 mt, 25,000 mt and 10,000 mt MoM respectively.
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