[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Silicon Metal Strengthens with Destocking, Solar Cells Stable, 210N Inventory Tight

SMM, October 16:

Silica

Prices:Silica prices were broadly stable this week. High-grade silica mine-mouth prices in Hubei held at 310-350 yuan/mt, while those in Inner Mongolia stood at 290-330 yuan/mt.

Supply:Silica supply was ample overall, with supply-demand conditions basically stable.

Demand:Silicon plants mainly purchased as needed.

Silicon metal

Prices:Spot silicon metal prices firmed slightly this week, with oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China around 9,450-9,550 yuan/mt. The SI2611 contract retreated after a rapid rise this week, opening at 8,505 yuan/mt after the National Day holiday, then drifting higher amid bullish factors such as tight spot silicon metal circulation, the approaching rainy and dry seasons in Sichuan and Yunnan, and northern silicon enterprises holding prices firm. It hit a mid-week high of 8,750 yuan/mt, but futures fell sharply on bearish macro disturbances, closing at 8,495 yuan/mt yesterday, down 10 yuan/mt from the first post-holiday session (October 8). Silicon metal fundamentals remained firm, and with expectations of further supply declines in November, fundamentals provided support to the downside.

Production:With the rainy and dry seasons approaching, most silicon plants in Sichuan and Yunnan plan to cut production in late October or at month-end, and November silicon metal production is expected to fall MoM.

Inventory:SMM data showed social inventory of silicon metal in major regions fell by 3,000 mt WoW as of October 15 (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, and other regions). Most regions saw limited arrivals at social warehouses, and with buyers gradually picking up goods, silicon metal social warehouses continued destocking.

Wafers

Prices:18X wafer prices were 0.994-1.002 yuan/piece, 210RN wafer prices were 1.031-1.05 yuan/piece, and 210N wafer prices were 1.125-1.146 yuan/piece, with overall wafer price fluctuations limited. Recent polysilicon price increases strengthened wafer makers' willingness to hold prices firm, but downstream procurement remained mainly need-based restocking, leaving limited upward momentum. Wafer prices are expected to stay stable in the near term.

Production:According to SMM's latest survey, October wafer production is expected to pull back slightly from September.

Inventory:Wafer inventory is currently destocking modestly, with downstream digestion of earlier stockpiles driving some need-based restocking, while overseas stockpiling demand also provided some support.

Solar cells

Prices:Solar cell prices were stable across the board today, with quotes for all sizes holding at previous levels. The 210R price range held at 0.305-0.314 yuan/W; the 210N price range held at 0.295-0.30 yuan/W; and the 183 price range held at 0.290-0.301 yuan/W. Solar cell plant quotes were broadly stable, with downstream module makers mainly following up on a need basis. Transactions showed no significant volume increase, and the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream continued. 210N still has a solid basis for holding prices firm, supported by rising module-side demand, and prices are expected to remain stable in the near term. Attention should continue to be paid to how overseas export orders support 210R prices.

Production:Solar cell supply remained in contraction in October. Production line technological transformation is still underway, with some capacity phased out temporarily, and some enterprises undergoing holiday maintenance, pushing industry production further down MoM. The final extent of production cuts depends on how each enterprise's technological transformation progresses.

Inventory:Solar cell inventory continued to destock, with industry inventory levels moving lower. 210N spot supply was tight amid rising module demand, making it the tightest size currently. 210R overseas export orders shipped smoothly, with export channels continuing to digest inventories. 183 end-use demand was relatively mediocre, with destocking progress slower than the other two sizes. Low inventory combined with supply-side contraction formed a resonance that also provided some support to solar cell prices.

PV film

Prices:

PV-grade EVA:Mainstream transaction prices for domestic PV-grade EVA resin were 11,300-11,400 yuan/mt, with no significant price increase yet. Cost side, raw material prices stayed high, providing some support to resin prices. Supply side, some petrochemical units underwent maintenance, but with leading petrochemical plants switching to PV-grade material, overall PV-grade EVA resin supply changes were limited. Overall, cost support remains in place, and PV-grade EVA resin prices are expected to hold up well in the near term, with the possibility of temporary stability also not ruled out.

PV film:420g transparent EVA film prices held at 5.80-5.84 yuan/m², and 380g EPE film prices held at 5.62-5.66 yuan/m². Monthly film pricing was executed normally, and recent spot order prices also remained stable. Raw material EVA prices edged up slightly, but the overall increase was limited, with no obvious impact on film cost side yet. Film prices are expected to remain stable in the near term.

Production:This week, some units switching to PV-grade material offset some unit shutdowns, with overall PV-grade EVA production edging up slightly. October film production schedules are expected to edge down MoM from September.

Inventory:Petrochemical plant inventories are currently at low levels, while film maker inventories are within a reasonable and controllable range.