UK aluminum packaging recycling organization Alupro has released an econometric study of the Packaging Recovery Note (PRN) market, covering 156 monthly observations from 2013 to 2025 across seven packaging materials and domestic and export recycling routes. The findings show that higher PRN prices are significantly associated with increased long-term recycling volumes for six of the seven materials studied.
For aluminum, PRN price increases were significantly associated with higher recycling tonnages, while price decreases showed no comparable significant effect. Aluminum was also the only material where domestic reprocessing volumes declined while export volumes increased as PRN prices rose, suggesting that stronger price incentives may encourage more aluminum scrap to flow into overseas markets. The findings are expected to inform future UK packaging recycling policy and PRN system reforms.
