[SMM Analysis] Downstream price acceptance remains weak; nickel salt prices fell this week

Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has officially released the Nickel Mineral Reference Price (HMA) for the second half of October 2026. The nickel HMA was set at US$15,847.67/ton, down US$475/ton, or 2.91%, from US$16,322.67/ton in the first half of October. The cobalt HMA was set at US$38,938.33/ton, while the iron ore and chrome ore HMAs stood at US$1.40/ton and US$6.37/ton, respectively. The corresponding Indonesian nickel ore reference prices (HPM) for the second half of October are as follows: - Ni 1.2%: US$22.44/wmt, down US$0.75 - Ni 1.3%: US$44.58/wmt, down US$1.49 - Ni 1.4%: US$50.05/wmt, down US$1.61 - Ni 1.5%: US$54.48/wmt, down US$1.74 - Ni 1.6%: US$59.12/wmt, down US$1.88

Indonesian 300-series stainless export offers were cut by USD30/ton across the board on 15 October, the first reduction after a long stable spell, as weak demand forced mills to lower prices to win orders.

[10.15 Morning Meeting Notes] US Fed's "third-in-command" Williams sent a dovish signal, fueling expectations that the rate-hike cycle is nearing its end. New York Fed President Williams (permanent voting member) said one more rate hike this year would be appropriate, but there is no need to hike in 2027. This marks the Fed's first explicit signal that "only one final hike remains in 2026." Following his remarks, the US dollar and Treasury yields pulled back, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling 1.6 bp to 5.221%, and the US dollar index retreating from 18-month highs, down 0.37% to 102.2. However, internal divisions remain (Goolsbee and Barkin lean hawkish). US September CPI will be released tonight at 20:30, the last inflation data before the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, serving as a key verdict. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2611) swung wildly during the daytime session, closing at 118,320 yuan/mt, down 0.14%. Williams' dovish signal pulled back the US dollar and Treasury yields and fueled expectations that the rate-hike cycle is nearing its end, but market sentiment remains cautious ahead of tonight's US September CPI release, with weak position-building momentum. Nickel's own fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand remain unchanged. If tonight's CPI is mild, dovish expectations will be confirmed, supporting a rebound; if it exceeds expectations, pressure will return. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 118,000-121,000 yuan/mt.