[SMM Analysis] September price spreads narrowed, with expectations of further narrowing in October

Published: Oct 14, 2026 11:03 (GMT+8)

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In September, the cold-rolled/hot-rolled price spread and the galvanized/cold-rolled price spread narrowed MoM. The monthly average cold-rolled/hot-rolled price spread narrowed from 501 yuan/mt in August to 477 yuan/mt, while the monthly average galvanized/cold-rolled price spread edged down from 297 yuan/mt in August to 295 yuan/mt, basically stable. September officially entered the peak season, but peak-season demand was not prominent. Demand rebounded from the off-season but remained weak compared with the same period in previous years, leaving limited upside for prices. Meanwhile, after multiple rounds of coke price hikes, costs for sheets & plates were high, and steel mills were mostly operating at a loss, leaving no room for price declines. According to SMM statistics, cold-rolling profits were lower than hot-rolled coil profits in September. Under pressure from weak demand and loss-making margins, cold-rolling prices were basically stable with slight increases, and the upside for prices was narrower compared with hot-rolled coil.
Looking ahead to October, the month is still within the peak season but demand is mediocre. Based on steel mill order-taking and downstream demand, a sharp demand surge is unlikely in October. After the National Day holiday ended, the market saw little demand beyond essential restocking, and with high inventory accumulation, price pressure persists. At the same time, coke price cuts have begun, giving sheets & plates more profit room, and the fluctuation range for sheets & plates prices is expected to widen. From the perspective of spot profits, hot-rolled coil profits are currently lower than cold-rolled coil profits, narrowing the downside for hot-rolled coil prices. From the perspective of cold-rolled vs. hot-rolled products, cold-rolling order-taking limits the upside for prices to some extent. In summary, October price spreads are expected to have slight room for further narrowing compared with September.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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