[ADC12 Daily Price Comment] Aluminum Alloy Futures Retreat after Rapid Rise, Spot Prices Hold Steady

Armenia’s Statistical Committee reported Jan-Aug 2026 molybdenum concentrate output of 11,701 t, up 17.9% YoY, while ferromolybdenum output fell 45.5% to 1,078.3 t. Using the latest cumulative figures and previously released Jan-Jul data, SMM estimates August output at 1,297.5 t of concentrate, down about 19.7% YoY, and 171.1 t of FeMo, down about 32.6%. All figures are product mass, not contained Mo. Monthly YoY rates are estimates based on rounded cumulative growth rates.

Mongolia’s Mineral Resources and Petroleum Authority reported that the October 2026 international market reference price for exported molybdenum was $74,031.14/t, up 0.8% from September’s $73,475.58/t. The October value is based on the September 2026 average and is published under Article 47 of the Minerals Law and related government resolutions. It is an official export-mineral reference price—not an Erdenet concentrate auction result or an oxide spot quote. The page does not specify product form or grade.

South Africa’s ferrochrome industry faces a broader competitiveness challenge despite progress on electricity-cost relief, according to discussions at Project Blue’s Critical Materials Conference in Johannesburg on September 8–9, reported by Engineering News on October 9. The negotiated electricity tariff of around 62 cents/kWh for selected ferrochrome smelters, subject to regulatory approval, offers potential relief to producers facing high operating costs. However, industry participants stressed that lower power costs alone will not guarantee a sustained recovery, as logistics efficiency, plant performance, access to capital and policy certainty remain critical to the viability of domestic smelting. The challenge reflects a structural imbalance in the chromium value chain: South Africa remains a major chrome ore supplier, while China has become the leading ferrochrome producer, supported by processing scale and proximity to stainless-steel demand. A durable recovery in South African smelting therefore depends on whether tariff relief can be complemented by reliable transport, efficient operations and investment in existing capacity. For the chrome market, a sustained increase in domestic ferrochrome production could redirect some ore towards local furnaces rather than exports, although the scale and timing of any change will depend on actual smelter utilization and market conditions.