[SMM Tin Midday Review] Macro bullish and bearish drivers fluctuate, SHFE tin consolidates, spot dip-buying dominates

Tin Spot Market Midday Review for October 13, 2026

I. Price Review

SMM #1 tin was quoted at 396,000-397,900 yuan/mt today, with an average price of 396,950 yuan/mt, down 1,700 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened lower in the morning and then consolidated higher, hitting an intraday low of 393,670 yuan/mt before closing the morning at 397,600 yuan/mt, down 390 yuan (-0.1%). Open interest stood at 33,434 lots, down 725 lots on the day.

LME 3M tin last traded at $52,760/mt, down $160 (-0.3%), with the price center leaning weak.

II. Spot Market

Spot market trading was relatively sluggish today. On the quote side, traders quoted in line with market conditions, smelters showed moderate quoting enthusiasm, and inter-brand discounts fluctuated little. On the transaction side, the market continued its dip-buying pattern. After tin prices stabilized and rebounded, buying interest visibly cooled, with limited willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, large orders were scarce, with transactions dominated by small spot orders for rigid demand. Downstream end-users showed no significant recovery. Raw material inventories were not high, and purchases were made in small lots on an as-needed basis. Buyers placed orders only when prices were deemed suitable, then returned to a wait-and-see stance after restocking.

III. Price Logic

The macro front continued to weigh on tin prices. Cleveland Fed President Hammack struck a hawkish tone, stating that rates need to be raised further, current policy is not restrictive enough, and inflation is returning too slowly. She favored a "small, frequent" approach to rate hikes. Market bets on one more rate hike before year-end intensified. The 10-year US Treasury yield held above 5%, and the US dollar index rose 0.37% to 102.586, approaching its highest level since April 2025. The strong dollar and elevated rate environment pressured nonferrous metals valuations. On the geopolitical front, an Iranian supertanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, and Houthi forces struck Riyadh airport, escalating the Middle East conflict on multiple fronts. Both WTI and Brent crude closed at two-week highs, and the transmission of energy premiums still needs to be observed. Overall, intraday price movements were primarily driven by macro pricing.

IV. Comprehensive Outlook

In summary, tin prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. On the upside, macro factors remain a headwind, including rising expectations for another rate hike and attention on how long the US dollar will maintain its rate stance. Meanwhile, demand-side elasticity remains insufficient, and resistance is evident above the 400,000 yuan mark. On the downside, expectations of tight supply and rigid-demand buying in the 380,000-390,000 yuan range provide support, with dip-buying still attracting purchases. This creates a pattern of "capped upside and supported downside." In the short term, SHFE tin prices are expected to trade in the 392,000-403,000 yuan/mt range, while LME three-month tin is expected to trade in the $52,300-53,800/mt range.