[SMM Tin Midday Review] Macro Pressure Eases at the Margin; SHFE Tin Rebounds but Encounters Resistance Above

Published: Oct 12, 2026 12:22 (GMT+8)

Save

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Macro Pressure Eases at the Margin, SHFE Tin Rebounds but Encounters Resistance Above]

Tin Spot Market Midday Commentary for October 12, 2026

1. Price Review

Today, SMM #1 tin spot was quoted at 398,000-399,300 yuan/mt, with an average price of 398,650 yuan/mt, up 5,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

The most-traded SHFE tin contract extended its recovery from last Friday. During today's session, it hit an intraday high of 400,500 yuan/mt, briefly approaching the 400,000 yuan mark, and dipped to a low of 393,830 yuan/mt. It closed the morning at 398,930 yuan/mt, up 7,760 yuan/mt, or 1.98%, from the previous trading day's settlement price (391,170 yuan/mt). Intraday open interest fell by 1,222 lots to 33,747 lots. The contract retreated immediately after touching the 400,000 yuan level, indicating persistent overhead resistance.

On the LME, LME tin 3M pulled back slightly to $52,900/mt, down $100/mt, or 0.19%, from the previous trading day.

2. Macro Front

Pressure eased marginally: the 10-year US Treasury yield shot up before retreating to 5.246%, ending a five-week winning streak. The US dollar index remained at 102.12, up for a fourth straight week (the longest weekly winning streak in 21 months), but its upward momentum weakened somewhat. US Fed officials maintained a hawkish but flexible stance—Waller reiterated that further rate hikes are still needed, but they do not have to occur at consecutive meetings and the timing can be flexible. Market pricing for an October hike has dropped to just 19%, though the probability of a cumulative 25 bp hike by end-December stands at 84%. Year-end tightening expectations have not been removed, only the expected pace has slowed. This suggests the current rebound is a "recovery amid easing pressure" rather than a "reversal after pressure removal."

On the domestic front, conditions recovered marginally. The official manufacturing PMI for September came in at 50.1, returning to expansion territory. The Ministry of Finance arranged the use of 550 billion yuan in local government debt carryover quota. China and the EU reached an understanding on hybrid vehicle trade. The offshore yuan strengthened past 6.70, approaching a four-year high.

3. Spot Market

Today, futures rebounded to the 398,000-400,000 yuan zone, and the SMM average price rose 5,000 yuan to 398,650 yuan/mt. Downstream buyers showed limited willingness to chase higher prices, spot transactions were thin, and the market was dominated by a wait-and-see digestion of the move. "Sharp declines trigger buying, rebounds suppress purchasing." If prices pull back to low levels again, a new round of purchasing demand is expected to emerge.

4. Outlook

In the short term, prices remain primarily driven by macro factors. Although the US dollar index pulled back slightly and the US Treasury yield ended its winning streak, absolute levels remain high, and the expectation of a rate hike by end-December (84%) has not faded. This caps the upside for the rebound. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to consolidate in the 390,000-405,000 yuan/mt range in the near term.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

4 hours ago

[ASML to Raise Parts Prices in South Korea by 10%]

According to South Korean media reports, ASML, the world's largest semiconductor equipment manufacturer, will uniformly raise the prices of replacement parts supplied in South Korea by 10%. The new prices will take effect from January next year, and the price increase covers all parts for EUV and DUV lithography machines. Industry insiders revealed that early last month, ASML headquarters had already notified Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix of the price increase intention through its South Korean subsidiary. The price hike was finalized after negotiations with the procurement departments of the two companies.

4 hours ago

[Ministry of Commerce: China and Europe have enormous cooperation potential in new energy, artificial intelligence and other fields]

A senior official from the European Affairs Department of the Ministry of Commerce elaborated on the outcomes of the second meeting of the China-EU trade and investment consultation mechanism: The two sides reviewed the general guidance document on price commitments in the anti-subsidy case concerning EVs reached earlier, and the EU side will actively advance the procedures related to enterprise price commitments and reviews in the EV case. The two sides looked ahead positively to future cooperation, believing that China and the EU have enormous potential for cooperation in areas such as new energy, artificial intelligence, trade in services, the digital economy, and green and low-carbon development, and can further explore new opportunities and expand new space. The two sides agreed to explore two-way investment cooperation. China, as always, welcomes EU enterprises to invest and do business in China and will continue to improve the business environment, while also expecting the EU side to create a fair, transparent, and predictable business environment for Chinese enterprises, effectively safeguard their legitimate rights and interests, and boost their confidence and expectations for investing and operating in Europe.

4 hours ago

[Beijing: Increase effective supply of new-generation intelligent terminal products such as AI phones and computers, and intelligent robots]

The Beijing Municipal People's Government has issued the Plan for Deepening the Construction of an International Consumption Center City during the 15th Five-Year Plan Period. The plan points out that Beijing will further advance "AI + consumption." It will expand consumption of digital products and increase the effective supply of new-generation intelligent end-use products such as AI phones and computers, smart wearables, and smart robots. It will innovate consumption of digital content, encourage the use of AI technologies to assist in the creation of theater, music, dance, fine arts, and immersive experiences, launch more high-quality digital cultural heritage products, and increase the supply of ultra-high-definition content in radio, television, and online audio-visual services. It will create new digital consumption scenarios, accelerate the integration of digital and intelligent technologies with consumption scenarios, promote the integrated application of AI, virtual reality, and ultra-high-definition technologies in commerce, education, healthcare, culture, tourism, sports, and other fields, and build smart business districts and smart stores. It will expand digital consumption channels, support the digital marketing of brick-and-mortar commercial enterprises, and guide the regulated and healthy development of instant retail and livestream e-commerce.

4 hours ago