SHFE/LME price ratio weakens, Yangshan copper premiums lack upward momentum, spot premiums pull back [SMM Yangshan spot copper]

Published: Oct 12, 2026 11:50 (GMT+8)

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On October 12, the average warrant price fell $5/mt from the previous trading day to $130/mt (price range: $120-140/mt); the average B/L price fell $5/mt from the previous trading day to 125 yuan/mt (price range: 120-130 yuan/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price fell $1/mt from the previous trading day to $61/mt (price range: $54-68/mt), with quotes referencing October-arrival cargoes.

The SHFE/LME price ratio weakened today, downstream demand showed mediocre performance, and combined with lower domestic spot premiums, imported copper spot premiums lacked upward momentum. Early-session actual transactions were sluggish, and under the current futures-spot structure, the market holds expectations for a pullback in premiums going forward. It was heard that registered ER copper B/L was quoted at around $130/mt today, registered ER copper warrants were quoted at around $140/mt, and EQ copper arriving in late October was quoted at around $70/mt.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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Concentrated arrivals of imported copper combined with high backwardation pressure cause spot premiums to pull back rapidly [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

SMM, October 12: Spot premiums for copper cathode in east China pulled back rapidly during the day, with the transaction center shifting from around a premium of 400 yuan/mt in early trading to around 50–80 yuan/mt. SMM recorded social inventory in Shanghai at 66,500 mt, up 11,800 mt WoW, mainly due to concentrated arrivals of imported copper, which further eased the tightness of available supply in the market. Social inventory in Jiangsu stood at 19,800 mt, down 2,600 mt WoW, mainly due to fewer arrivals of domestic supply and normal cargo pick-up by downstream buyers. Approaching delivery, as of midday, open interest in the SHFE copper 2610 contract was about 31,000 lots, with SHFE copper warrants at over 8,000 mt, while the backwardation between prompt and next-month contracts remained high. Suppliers showed strong willingness to sell, continuously lowering quotes to facilitate transactions. High copper prices combined with the wide price spread between futures contracts suppressed downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and processing enterprises mainly made just-in-time procurement. With replenishment from imported supply and active selling by suppliers, Shanghai spot premiums are expected to remain under pressure tomorrow and may pull back slightly further.

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