I. Market Overview
This week (as of October 10), the first trading week after the National Day holiday, the national computing power leasing market showed a pattern of "minor index adjustments with long-term contracts shooting up": of the 19 price indices covered by SMM, 17 remained flat, with only the SMM-A100-80G-full server-Yangtze River Delta-monthly and SMM-H100-80G-full server-Western China-monthly indices raised, and none lowered. Signals from the price collection side were stronger than the indices: H200 in Northwest China with a five-year closed contract was quoted at 132,000 yuan/unit·month, with the first station at 130,000 yuan; H100 in Northwest China with a one-year minimum lease term was quoted at 87,000 yuan, about 15% higher than closed long-term contracts in the same region; the upper bound of listed prices for high-end full-server spot cargo rose to 17.9999 million yuan/unit.
II. Analysis of Computing Power Leasing Resources by Product
The upper bound of SMM-H100-80G-full server-Western China-monthly broke through, with long-term contracts exceeding 87,000 for the first time. The highest monthly rent rose from 84,000 to 87,000 yuan (a monthly rent increase of 3.57%), and the average price rose from 81,000 to 82,500 yuan/month (a monthly rent increase of 1.85%); the average price per card-hour rose from 14.06 to 14.32 yuan (a card-hour increase of 1.85%), while the lowest price of 78,000 yuan and the lowest card-hour price of 13.54 yuan remained unchanged. The index jumped on the 10th, moving in the same direction as the sample of one H100 in Northwest China leased for one year at 87,000 yuan.
The lower bound of SMM-A100-80G-full server-Yangtze River Delta-monthly caught up, with the center shifting upward. The lowest monthly rent rose from 35,000 to 38,000 yuan (a monthly rent increase of 8.57%), and the average price rose from 37,500 to 39,000 yuan/month (a monthly rent increase of 4.00%); the average price per card-hour rose from 6.51 to 6.77 yuan (a card-hour increase of 3.99%), while the highest price of 40,000 yuan and 6.94 yuan remained flat. Low-priced tiers were absorbed first and the top was not breached, with existing imported cards converging first.
SMM-H20-96G-full server-Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-monthly remained flat, while the lower bound on the price collection side had already loosened. The index maintained a lowest price of 38,000 yuan, a highest price of 47,000 yuan, and an average price of 42,500 yuan/month (card-hour price of 7.38 yuan) throughout the week. Three H20 96G units in North China were leased at 38,000 yuan including cabinet and electricity, consistent with the lower bound of the index; five-tier quotes for the same model extended from 38,000 yuan in North China to 53,000 yuan in Southwest China.
SMM-910B-64G-full server indices in three regions remained flat, with domestic products temporarily stable. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei at 19,500 yuan (card-hour price of 3.39), Chengdu-Chongqing at 18,787.5 yuan (card-hour price of 3.26), and Western China at 13,750 yuan/month (card-hour price of 2.39).
Other indices in Chengdu-Chongqing and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei remained flat, with the divergence between long-term contracts and short-term leases widening. Chengdu-Chongqing SMM-A100-80G-full server-Chengdu-Chongqing at 37,000 yuan, SMM-A100-40G-full server-Chengdu-Chongqing at 12,000 yuan, SMM-A800-80G-full server-Chengdu-Chongqing at 35,000 yuan, SMM-H20-141G-full server-Chengdu-Chongqing at 45,500 yuan; Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei SMM-A800-80G-full server-Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei at 32,000 yuan, SMM-H800-80G-full server-Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei at 71,250 yuan/month. H200 Northwest five-year closed at 132,000 yuan, 3.1% higher than the RoCE sample in the same region, with a short-term rental premium of about 15% and an inverted term structure.
III. Market Outlook and SMM View
In the short term, the index side saw only two adjustments while the price collection side hit new highs intensively, and listing prices are decoupling from long-term contract transaction prices at an accelerating pace. Long-term contracts showed no discounts but instead refreshed the upper bound, indicating that seller pricing power is still strengthening; the roughly 15% premium of short-term rentals over long-term rentals suggests that willingness to pay for immediately deliverable resources is higher than for forward lock-ins. Three points warrant attention: First, leading cloud vendors are expanding inference resource pools, requiring customs declarations and proof of ownership and signing directly with cargo owners while bypassing intermediaries, which may compress the roughly 1,000 yuan per unit per month intermediary markup for the H series. Second, prices are transmitting from the rental side upstream to the whole-machine side. After the holiday, the upper bound of high-end whole-machine listing prices rose to 17.9999 million yuan per unit, and the upward shift in the cost anchor will support subsequent rents. Third, the hardware rally has spread to the desktop side, with the DGX Spark up 14.9% in half a month to 42,500 yuan, and the after-tax quote for a single 5090 card standing above 50,000 yuan.
This week's core data summary (2 up, 17 flat):
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SMM-A100-80G-Whole Machine-Yangtze River Delta-Monthly: average price 39,000 yuan/month (monthly rent +4.00%), card-hour 6.77 yuan (card-hour +3.99%)
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SMM-H100-80G-Whole Machine-West China-Monthly: average price 82,500 yuan/month (monthly rent +1.85%), card-hour 14.32 yuan (card-hour +1.85%)
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SMM-A100-80G-Whole Machine-Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Monthly: 32,500 yuan/month, card-hour 5.64 yuan
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SMM-A800-80G-Whole Machine-Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Monthly: 32,000 yuan/month, card-hour 5.56 yuan
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SMM-H800-80G-Whole Machine-Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Monthly: 71,250 yuan/month, card-hour 12.37 yuan
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SMM-H20-96G-Whole Machine-Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Monthly: 42,500 yuan/month, card-hour 7.38 yuan
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SMM-910B-64G-Whole Machine-Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Monthly: 19,500 yuan/month, card-hour 3.39 yuan
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SMM-A100-80G-Whole Machine-Chengdu-Chongqing-Monthly: 37,000 yuan/month, card-hour 6.42 yuan
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SMM-A100-40G-Whole Machine-Chengdu-Chongqing-Monthly: 12,000 yuan/month, card-hour 2.08 yuan
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SMM-A800-80G-Whole Machine-Chengdu-Chongqing-Monthly: 35,000 yuan/month, card-hour 6.08 yuan
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SMM-H20-141G-Whole Machine-Chengdu-Chongqing-Monthly: 45,500 yuan/month, card-hour 7.90 yuan
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SMM-910B-64G-Whole Machine-Chengdu-Chongqing-Monthly: 18,787.5 yuan/month, card-hour 3.26 yuan
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SMM-910B-64G-Whole Machine-West China-Monthly: 13,750 yuan/month, card-hour 2.39 yuan
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