As of October 10, China's total cold-rolled inventory stood at approximately 1.7199 million mt, up 141,000 mt MoM, an increase of about 8.9%. Breaking down the structure, China's cold-rolled social inventory was 1.2994 million mt, up 98,900 mt MoM, an increase of about 8.2%, with in-factory inventory growth contributing the remainder of the total inventory rise. Comparing against historical inventory curves, current total cold-rolled inventory and social inventory levels are notably higher than the same period in 2023 and 2024, and also sit in a relatively high range compared with the same period in 2025, highlighting overall inventory pressure.
Supply side, cold-rolled production in September rose MoM from August, with steel mills maintaining relatively high output levels and continuously releasing resources into the market, providing a supply foundation for inventory accumulation. Demand side, the traditional September peak season for manufacturing did not deliver the anticipated strong recovery, as downstream end-use industries such as automobiles and home appliances only made just-in-time procurement, with limited order growth. Compounded by the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, downstream enterprises held a strong wait-and-see sentiment before the holidays and did not carry out concentrated stockpiling, resulting in weak market transactions. Resources released by steel mills could not be quickly absorbed, and starting from end-September, cold-rolled social inventory was the first to enter an inventory buildup pace, driving total inventory upward in tandem.
Looking ahead to October cold-rolled inventory trends, the pace is expected to rise first then fall. At end-September, cold-rolled social inventory in major Chinese cities had already accumulated ahead of time, leaving a high inventory base. In early October, affected by the National Day holiday shutdowns and logistics slowdown, downstream procurement came to a temporary halt, with social inventory continuing to edge up and reaching a phased high. After the holiday, downstream enterprises resumed production, and market transactions are expected to gradually recover, with inventory entering a slow destocking channel in mid-to-late October. Overall, October inventory is expected to rise first then fall, with month-end inventory levels slightly lower than end-September, but still staying high YoY and unlikely to pull back to the lower range seen in the same period in previous years. Persistently high inventory pressure will suppress bullish sentiment in the market, limiting the upside for cold-rolled prices.
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