According to SMM data, silicon metal production in September was 317,000 mt, down 11.0% MoM and down 24.7% YoY. Cumulative silicon metal production in January-September 2026 was 3.052 million mt, up 1% YoY.
In September, silicon enterprises in different regions saw mixed production changes, with Xinjiang posting the largest decline. Silicon metal production in Xinjiang fell 26% MoM in September, a reduction of around 55,000 mt. Production in Gansu and Inner Mongolia rose 76% and 25% MoM respectively, with combined growth of 17,000 mt across the two regions. In addition, Sichuan and other regions saw minor production fluctuations. Overall, September production declined MoM.
In October, production growth in northern regions mainly reflects the full-month output of capacity that resumed production in September. New production resumptions in the north are limited in October, and large plants in Xinjiang have no production resumption plan for October. In southern regions, operating rates are expected to weaken starting in October. From late October, Sichuan and Yunnan will gradually enter the dry season. Rising electricity prices, coupled with higher raw material prices such as silicon coal and petroleum coke, will push up production costs for silicon enterprises. In early October, a few silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan cut production, and most plan to cut or halt production in late October or at month-end. In addition, October has one more production day than September. Taking all factors into account, silicon metal production in October is expected to edge up around 5% MoM.
Looking back at 2025, the highest monthly production was 452,000 mt in October. This year's peak was 388,000 mt in July, mainly because operating rates in Sichuan and Yunnan during the rainy season fell YoY, combined with high H1 operating rates and weakening H2 operating rates at northern silicon enterprises. As a result, silicon metal production in H2 2026 was flat to slightly lower than H1, and Q4 silicon metal production is expected to see a significant YoY decline.
