China Holiday Slows Rare Earth Trade; Market Awaits Q4 Demand【SMM Analysis】

Rare Earth Oxides (REOs)

During the National Day holiday, overall trading activity in the rare earth oxide market remained subdued. Most separation companies had their sales and procurement departments on leave, while production units continued normal operations; only a very small number of enterprises suspended production entirely. Market quotations and inquiries were sparse, and actual transactions were rarely concluded.

Prior to the holiday, downstream enterprises had built up inventories aggressively, leaving raw material reserves at relatively ample levels. Consequently, the need for further restocking in the short term after the holiday is limited. With no significant changes observed on the demand side, post-holiday market trading sentiment is expected to return to a quiet state. Meanwhile, as some separation enterprises resume production after the break, the supply of rare earth oxide raw materials may see a moderate increase. This slight easing in the supply-demand balance could exert downward pressure on oxide prices going forward.

Rare Earth Metals

Ahead of the holiday, inquiry and procurement activity in the metals market showed some recovery, mainly driven by advance stockpiling from certain magnetic material producers. Actual transactions followed suit but did not expand significantly. During the holiday itself, metal producers maintained normal operations in their production departments while sales and procurement staff were on leave, effectively putting the market on hold with thin overall trading.

In the first week after the holiday, as order schedules at magnetic material producers are expected to improve, genuine restocking demand remains. However, downstream acceptance of high-priced metals is limited, capping any upside potential. In the short term, praseodymium-neodymium (PrNd) metal prices are likely to remain in a narrow fluctuation range.

NdFeB Permanent Magnets

NdFeB magnet prices remained generally stable, primarily supported by the steady prices of their core raw material—PrNd metal—during the holiday. Meanwhile, widespread leave among upstream and downstream sales and procurement personnel significantly reduced trading activity, keeping prices relatively firm.

From a market perspective, the National Day holiday led most magnet manufacturers to schedule maintenance shutdowns. New order transactions were suspended, with only production for existing orders and finished goods shipments continuing. A few downstream motor manufacturers made sporadic inquiries, mostly for sample orders—primarily related to overseas peak-season stocking for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the fourth quarter—with transaction prices settled based on pre-holiday PrNd metal prices.

At the same time, persistently high raw material prices since 2026 have further strained the working capital of downstream motor manufacturers compared to last year. Most plants have adopted a need-based procurement strategy, reducing inventory buildup to hedge against price volatility risks, which made spot trading during the holiday even more subdued. Based on this, SMM expects NdFeB prices to remain stable in the first week after the holiday, with the market maintaining a wait-and-see stance. All eyes are on the year-end rush stocking season for the fourth quarter, which kicks off in mid-October; the actual release of demand at that time may prove to be the key variable in breaking the current stalemate.