[Market Overview] Of the 19 indices collected on October 9, 2026, 18 remained unchanged, with the only movement seen in the Yangtze River Delta A100-80G complete machines. Low-priced resources of existing Nvidia cards continued to be absorbed, long-cycle closed prices broke through the upper bound again, short-term rental resources showed structural premiums, and upstream complete machine listings rose in tandem. The market exhibited a four-tier differentiation characterized by "shrinking existing supply, strengthening long-term contracts, short-term rental premiums, and complete machine price surges."
[A100-80G Yangtze River Delta: Low-priced inventory cleared, price center shifted upward]
The lowest monthly rent rose from 35,000 yuan to 38,000 yuan, an increase of 8.6%; the lowest per-card hourly rate rose from 6.08 yuan to 6.60 yuan, an increase of 8.6%. The average monthly rent rose from 37,500 yuan to 39,000 yuan, an increase of 4.0%; the average per-card hourly rate rose from 6.51 yuan to 6.77 yuan. The highest price remained unchanged at 40,000 yuan. The low-priced tier was absorbed first while the highest price was not breached, indicating that the price center shifted upward but the ceiling had not yet been opened.
[H100 Northwest: One-year lease at 87,000 yuan, short-term rental premium becomes explicit] One H100 complete machine in the Northwest was listed for rent, with a one-year minimum lease term and a monthly rent of 87,000 yuan, configured with an 8-card HGX module, 1TB of memory, and 400G network cards. Compared with the four-to-five-year closed contracts in the same region in August at 75,000-76,000 yuan, this listing was 11,000-12,000 yuan higher, a premium of approximately 15%. The lease term structures differ, so this cannot be regarded as a like-for-like increase, but short-term rental pricing is clearly higher than long-term rental, reflecting that the term premium on available existing resources is becoming explicit.
[H200 Northwest: Five-year closed contract breaks 130,000 yuan for the first time] Sixty-four H200 spot cargo units in the Northwest were listed for rent, with a five-year closed contract, two months' deposit and two months' rent paid upfront, and IB networking, at a monthly rent of 132,000 yuan, equivalent to approximately 22.92 yuan per card-hour. This was 4,000 yuan higher than the quotation of 128,000 yuan for 256 units under a five-year closed contract in the same region, an increase of 3.1%, marking the first time this model has reached the 130,000 yuan upper bound.
[Compliance-restricted models: Quotations probing the lower bound] In the Southwest, 256 Pro 6000D units were offered under a three-year closed contract, with two months' deposit and one month's rent paid upfront, at a monthly rent of 32,000 yuan per unit, all-inclusive, already networked, and directly signed with a major manufacturer, equivalent to approximately 5.56 yuan per card-hour. With performance limitations on the compliant version combined with increased supply, quotations have probed the lower bound of the range.
[Complete machine side: Listing upper bound raised to nearly 18 million yuan] After the holiday, a channel distributor quoted high-end computing power complete machines at approximately 17.5 million yuan per unit; in the week after the holiday, based on public listing data, the quotation range for similar complete machines was 14.1 million yuan for futures to 17.9999 million yuan per unit for spot cargo, with 128 units of Shenzhen spot cargo at a floor price of 17.9999 million yuan per unit; before the holiday, from September 28 to 30, mainstream quotations for Shenzhen spot cargo were 16.8 million to 17.1 million yuan per unit. The above quotations differ in configuration, delivery location, and transaction structure, so they are not compared on a like-for-like basis, and none have been confirmed by transactions, but the upper bound of quotations has been raised to 17.9999 million yuan per unit.
[SMM View] First, the lowest A100 price rose 8.6% in a single day, indicating that deliverable existing Nvidia cards are tightening and demand is forming a concentrated confirmation of spot resources. Second, H200 long-cycle closed prices rose rather than fell, showing that seller pricing power continues to strengthen, and the long-term contract logic has shifted from "locking prices to hedge risk" to "prioritizing volume lock-in." Third, the approximately 15% premium of short-term rentals over long-term rentals indicates that the market's willingness to pay for immediately available resources is higher than for forward lock-ins, and an inverted term structure is beginning to emerge. Fourth, prices are being transmitted from the rental side to the upstream complete machine side, and the upward shift in the cost anchor will provide support for subsequent rents. It should be noted that complete machine quotations are dispersed in terms of specifications and transactions remain unconfirmed, so they should only be used as a trend reference and should not be directly extrapolated to rental prices.
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