Bao Gang United Steel and China Northern Rare Earth Q4 rare earth concentrates transaction prices edge up QoQ; how will the market perform going forward? [SMM Commentary]

China Northern Rare Earth announced on the evening of October 9: Based on the rare earth concentrate pricing method and rare earth oxide prices in Q3 2026, after calculation and approval at the company's 20th General Manager Office Meeting of 2026, the company's rare earth concentrate transaction price for Q4 2026 has been adjusted to 38,769 yuan/mt excluding tax (dry basis, REO=50%), with the tax-exclusive price adjusted by 775.38 yuan/mt for each 1% increase or decrease in REO. Compared with the rare earth concentrate transaction price of 38,565 yuan/mt in Q3 this year, the price of 38,769 yuan/mt represents an increase of 204 yuan/mt, up 0.53% QoQ. According to SMM, this increase is broadly in line with market expectations.

China Northern Rare Earth and Bao Gang United Steel Q4 rare earth concentrate transaction price up 0.53% QoQ

China Northern Rare Earth announced on the evening of October 9: The company held the 25th meeting of the 8th Board of Directors on March 14, 2023, and the first extraordinary general meeting of 2023 on March 30, 2023, at which the Proposal on the Pricing Mechanism for Daily Related-Party Transactions of Rare Earth Concentrates and the 2022 Implementation and 2023 Forecast was reviewed and approved. The company and its related party Inner Mongolia Bao Gang United Steel Co., Ltd. agreed that, starting from April 1, 2023, with the rare earth concentrate pricing formula unchanged, the company's management would calculate and adjust the rare earth concentrate price in the first ten days of each quarter based on the pricing formula, and re-sign the rare earth concentrate supply contract or supplementary agreement and announce it. Based on the rare earth concentrate pricing method and rare earth oxide prices in Q3 2026, after calculation and approval at the company's 20th General Manager Office Meeting of 2026, the company's rare earth concentrate transaction price for Q4 2026 has been adjusted to 38,769 yuan/mt excluding tax (dry basis, REO=50%), with the tax-exclusive price adjusted by 775.38 yuan/mt for each 1% increase or decrease in REO.Compared with the rare earth concentrate transaction price of 38,565 yuan/mt in Q3 this year, the price of 38,769 yuan/mt represents an increase of 204 yuan/mt, up 0.53% QoQ.

China Northern Rare Earth announced on the evening of July 9: Based on the rare earth concentrate pricing method and rare earth oxide prices in Q2 2026, after calculation and approval at the company's 14th General Manager Office Meeting of 2026, the company's rare earth concentrate transaction price for Q3 2026 has been adjusted to 38,565 yuan/mt excluding tax (dry basis, REO=50%), with the tax-exclusive price adjusted by 771.3 yuan/mt for each 1% increase or decrease in REO.Compared with the rare earth concentrate transaction price of 38,804 yuan/mt in Q2 this year, the price of 38,565 yuan/mt represents a decrease of 239 yuan/mt, down 0.62% QoQ.

China Northern Rare Earth announced on the evening of April 10: Based on the rare earth concentrate pricing method and rare earth oxide prices in Q1 2026, after calculation and approval at the company's 6th General Manager Office Meeting of 2026, the rare earth concentrate transaction price for Q2 2026 has been adjusted to 38,804 yuan/mt excluding tax (dry basis, REO=50%), with the tax-exclusive price adjusted by 776.08 yuan/mt for each 1% increase or decrease in REO. At 38,804 yuan/mt, this was up 11,970 yuan/mt from the Q1 rare earth concentrate transaction price of 26,834 yuan/mt, a QoQ increase of 44.61%.

China Northern Rare Earth announced on the evening of January 9: Based on the rare earth concentrate pricing method and Q4 2025 rare earth oxide prices, after calculation and approval at the company's first general manager office meeting of 2026, the Q1 2026 rare earth concentrate transaction price was adjusted to 26,834 yuan/mt excluding tax (dry basis, REO=50%), with the tax-exclusive price adjusted by 536.68 yuan/mt for each 1% change in REO. At 26,834 yuan/mt, this was up 629 yuan/mt from the Q4 2025 rare earth concentrate transaction price of 26,205 yuan/mt, a QoQ increase of 2.4%.

With this, the related-party rare earth concentrate transaction prices between Bao Gang United Steel and China Northern Rare Earth, after a sharp increase in Q2 and a slight QoQ pullback in Q3, resumed their uptrend in Q4, stabilizing at high levels overall. The stabilization and rebound in Q4 rare earth concentrate transaction prices also partly confirmed some recovery in rare earth oxide market confidence.

Slight QoQ decline in Q3 average Pr-Nd oxide price drove slight QoQ increase in Q4 rare earth concentrate transaction price

As stated in China Northern Rare Earth's announcement, based on the rare earth concentrate pricing method and Q3 2026 rare earth oxide prices, after calculation and approval at the company's 20th general manager office meeting of 2026, the company's Q4 2026 rare earth concentrate transaction price was adjusted to 38,769 yuan/mt excluding tax (dry basis, REO=50%), with the tax-exclusive price adjusted by 775.38 yuan/mt for each 1% change in REO.

Looking at the quarterly average price trend of Pr-Nd oxide: The average price of Pr-Nd oxide on September 30 was 739,500 yuan/mt, down 0.4% in Q3 from its June 30 average of 742,500 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, the Q3 quarterly average price of Pr-Nd oxide was 740,576.92 yuan/mt, up 0.69% QoQ from the Q2 quarterly average of 735,466.67 yuan/mt. Given the slight QoQ increase in the Q3 versus Q2 quarterly average price of Pr-Nd oxide, the 0.53% QoQ increase in the Q4 rare earth concentrate price between China Northern Rare Earth and Bao Gang United Steel was broadly in line with market expectations.

Pr-Nd oxide prices are currently stable. According to SMM quotes, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide on October 9 was flat from the previous trading day. Currently, upstream Pr-Nd oxide producers are reluctant to sell at low prices, while purchases by large downstream manufacturers also provide support for prices. However, end-use demand from downstream enterprises remains weak, showing an underperform in peak season, which makes downstream buyers unwilling to purchase at high prices. As a result, Pr-Nd oxide prices are moving sideways amid the stalemate between upstream and downstream. The market is now waiting for the Q4 year-end stockpiling peak season starting in mid-October; a substantial release of demand at that time may become the key variable to break the current stalemate.