SMM October 9 News:
In September 2026, China's invoice control policies showed no significant easing, and the divergence between tax-inclusive and tax-exclusive copper scrap persisted, remaining the core constraint on scrap-derived anode copper supply. On the demand side, smelters front-loaded downstream stocking demand to prepare for concentrated maintenance and the National Day holiday, keeping market procurement demand elevated. According to SMM prices, the monthly average blister copper RCs in south China were reported at 800-900 yuan/mt, and anode plate RCs in China at 550-650 yuan/mt, both running steadily at low levels.
Customs data showed that China's anode copper imports (HS code: 74020000) in August 2026 totaled 64,500 mt, down 15.80% MoM but up 4.85% YoY. Cumulative anode copper imports from January to August reached 546,000 mt, up 4.07% YoY. For copper ingot, China imported 40,000 mt of copper ingot (red/refined copper ingot, HS code: 74031900) in August 2026, up 16% MoM but down 7% YoY. Cumulative imports from January to August totaled 344,600 mt, up 12% YoY.
By country, port arrivals from major African producers declined both YoY and MoM, while Malaysia achieved a notable jump driven by the ramp-up of newly added scrap-utilization capacity locally. The contraction in African supply in August was mainly driven by the following factors: first, August marked the tail end of the rainy season in Africa, compounded by Zambian anode copper suppliers entering maintenance, which simultaneously constrained logistics capacity and smelting capacity; second, the LME copper backwardation structure fluctuated repeatedly in August, coupled with inverted import profit margins, which weakened traders' import appetite and reduced spot order imports. Notably, Southeast Asia's position as a hub for secondary copper transshipment and processing is expected to strengthen further, and its marginal impact on China's recycled raw material supply warrants long-term monitoring.
SMM expects that the supply-demand imbalance in the blister copper market will remain difficult to resolve in October 2026, with limited upside for processing fees.
Supply side, the invoice regulatory environment is expected to remain stringent in October, with invoice issues still the biggest obstacle to scrap-derived anode copper supply. Some anode copper suppliers will bring refining capacity online, marginally reducing ore-derived copper anode supply. Transportation costs for African logistics remain elevated, the futures-spot structure from August to September was unfavorable, and import profit margins were significantly inverted. Combined with the ongoing maintenance at Zambian supply smelters, anode copper imports are expected to be suppressed in Q3-Q4, with limited room for MoM improvement.
Demand side, spot copper concentrate TCs continued to hit new lows, sulphuric acid prices pulled back, and smelter losses widened. Multiple smelters will undergo concentrated maintenance from October to November, keeping anode plate stocking demand high.
Overall, the tightness in the blister copper market is unlikely to ease materially, and processing fees are expected to remain in the doldrums within the current range.
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