On October 9, due to SMM methodology, the index is only published when the number of working days in the week exceeds 2. Therefore, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index was not published this week.
Spot trading activity for imported copper concentrates declined further this week, while mine tender activity increased. In terms of spot transactions, a trader sold 10kt of EL Teniente/Andina to a smelter at the SMM weekly index minus $20/dmt, with loading in November and QP at M+1/M+5. Separately, a mine sold 10kt of EL Teniente/Andina to a smelter at a fixed price of minus $240/dmt, and a trader sold some Erdenet copper concentrates to a smelter at an index-linked price with a deduction of approximately $18/dmt. In terms of mine tenders, the previously tendered 20kt of Sierra Gorda was concluded at between minus $310/dmt and minus $300/dmt, with shipment periods in November 2026 and December 2026-January 2027. The winning bid price for Cuajone was minus $320/dmt. In addition, 40kt of Red Chris copper concentrates for 2027 were tendered, along with 40kt of Mantoverde for 2028, 10kt of Centinela, and 40kt of Los Pelambres, with results still unknown. Smelters' acceptance of index-linked and index-minus pricing mechanisms continued to decline, with procurement increasingly favoring fixed TCs to lock in costs. The prevailing market level for fixed TCs was approximately minus $240/dmt to minus $235/dmt, but some smelters with relatively small procurement needs showed limited willingness to accept this level, with bids mostly around minus $200/dmt. On the trader side, offers were still attempted on an index-linked basis, but the deduction narrowed from the previous $25/dmt. Their cargo positions were mainly concentrated in December and later loading periods, with an overall stance of holding inventory and waiting for further market clarity.
At BHP's Escondida copper mine in Chile (the world's largest copper mine, with annual production of approximately 1.0-1.1 million mt), supervisors voted overwhelmingly on September 30 in favor of strike action after rejecting BHP's latest contract proposal. BHP subsequently requested mandatory mediation by the Chilean government, with a statutory mediation period of 5 working days (extendable by 5 days). Mediation is currently underway, and a legal strike can only commence after mediation fails. As of October 9, mine production operations had not yet been affected. The union claimed that BHP's proposal lacked key welfare elements, while the company stated that the package already included improvements. Escondida is jointly owned by BHP (operator, 57.5% stake), Rio Tinto (30%), and a Japanese consortium (12.5%), and is the most important profit-generating asset in BHP's portfolio—in fiscal 2026, copper business revenue surpassed iron ore to become the largest source of profit. Market focus is on the fact that if mediation breaks down and triggers a strike, even a short-term disruption (past Escondida strikes typically lasted from several days to several weeks) would have a significant impact on global copper supply expectations, which are already tight.
On October 8, Ivanhoe Mines released its Q3 2026 production data. The company's Kamoa-Kakula copper complex in the DRC produced 76,401 mt of saleable copper during the quarter, up approximately 19% from 64,328 mt in Q2. As underground operations continued to recover, Kamoa-Kakula's mining rate increased 30% MoM, with monthly ore mined exceeding 700,000 mt. During the same period, the Kipushi zinc mine produced 77,147 mt of zinc concentrates, up 10% MoM and a new quarterly record. The Kamoa-Kakula smelter also produced 118,638 mt of by-product sulphuric acid during the quarter, also setting a quarterly record, with net realized sulphuric acid prices at approximately $900/mt, nearly doubling YoY. On the energy supply side, after Ivanhoe commissioned a 60 MW hybrid PV facility in September, diesel generator usage at the project site fell by approximately 40% from July. The company has signed new power purchase agreements and plans to expand PV capacity to 120 MW over the next 18 months. Ivanhoe maintained its full-year copper production guidance for Kamoa-Kakula at 290,000–310,000 mt, but expects final production to be near the lower end of the guidance range.
On October 7, the Minera Esperanza union and the Distrito Centinela union at Antofagasta Minerals' Centinela copper mine in Chile officially launched a strike. The strike involves 709 workers, accounting for approximately 22% of the mine's total direct workforce. Prior to this, mandatory mediation presided over by Chile's Labour Inspectorate failed to produce an agreement between labor and management. The unions stated that the beneficiation plant could continue to operate using existing ore stockpiles in the early stages of the strike, but mining haulage and mine development operations have already been affected. If the strike continues, the related impact is expected to gradually feed through to copper production after approximately two weeks and become more pronounced in November. Centinela stated that the strike has affected some operational activities, but the mine has not yet adjusted its full-year production forecast, and the company will continue negotiations with the unions. Antofagasta maintained its 2026 group copper production guidance at 625,000–655,000 mt.
Freeport-McMoRan disclosed on October 2 that its global copper production in Q3 2026 was approximately 830 million pounds (approximately 376,000 mt), with copper sales expected to be approximately 750 million pounds (approximately 340,000 mt). On the mining side, the Grasberg complex's daily average ore processing rate in Q3 was approximately 140,000 mt, recovering to approximately 67% of normal pre-accident levels from September 2025, with the Grasberg Block Cave underground mine supplying approximately 70,000 mt/day of ore. The underground ore conveying system upgrade is expected to be completed in early 2027, and the 1S production block is planned to restart in mid-2027. The company maintains its target of restoring 80% capacity by mid-2027 and approaching full production by year-end. On the smelting side, PTFI's Manyar smelter in Gresik, East Java, Indonesia, restarted at the end of August 2026, and its ramp-up progress is currently in line with expectations. Together with PT Smelting, the facility has a combined copper cathode capacity of approximately 800,000 mt/year.
On October 1, the groundbreaking ceremony for the fourth grinding line at the Sierra Gorda copper-molybdenum mine in Chile, jointly operated by Poland's KGHM and Australia's South32, marked the official start of construction for the expansion project. With a total investment of $725 million, the project is planned to commence full construction in January 2027, with a construction period of about three years. It is expected to be completed by the end of 2029 and reach full production in H2 2030. Once the fourth grinding line is operational, Sierra Gorda's daily average ore processing capacity will increase from 131,000 mt to 165,000 mt, a rise of about 26%. As the expansion project reaches full production, the mine's average annual copper production is expected to increase from 165,000 mt in 2025 to 195,000 mt.
On October 9, 2026, SMM recorded copper concentrate inventory at 11 ports of 703,100 mt in physical content, down 55,900 mt in physical content from September 30. The main growth came from Huludao Port, up 16,000 mt MoM; the declines were mainly from Jinzhou Port and Nanjing Port, down 34,000 mt and 20,000 mt MoM, respectively.
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