[SMM Europe Weekly Review] North-South HRC Spread Narrows to 3 EUR; Imports Squeezed by Quotas and Anti-Dumping Rules

[Europe] European hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel prices continued their upward trend today. With buyers facing highly constrained procurement choices and elevated raw material input costs providing baseline support, domestic mills maintained strong bargaining leverage and successfully pushed offer levels higher. The majority of European producers have either filled or are close to completing their fourth-quarter order books, enabling them to selectively accept business at higher price points. Producers are holding back official first-quarter allocations while awaiting an upcoming key industry event next week to better gauge market reaction. On the pricing front, the Northwest European HRC ex-works price edged up to 743 EUR/mt EXW (~831 USD/mt), while the Italian domestic price matched the gains, rising to 739 EUR/mt EXW (~826 USD/mt). Broadly speaking, underlying fundamentals remain largely unchanged with weak downstream end-user demand, leaving supply contraction and cost pressures as the primary drivers of current price momentum. On imports, market participants are actively tracking the precise duty calculations and quota drawdowns for October import arrivals, particularly regarding Turkish and Indian shipments.

[Turkey] As the domestic market is widely seen as having completed its final wave of concentrated restocking for the year, coupled with lingering pessimism in overseas markets, dual weakness in domestic and export demand has forced prices into a downward trend. In terms of pricing, Turkish rebar FOB export prices fell by 5 USD/tonne to 610 USD/tonne FOB, while domestic ex-works prices held temporarily flat at 610 USD/tonne EXW (excluding VAT). On the procurement side, EU buyers have yet to return to book November shipments, while buyers in other regions remain largely in wait-and-see mode given the slowdown in Turkish domestic demand, holding out for deeper export price cuts. Regionally, a Marmara mill reduced its rebar ex-works price by 10 USD/tonne to 630 USD/tonne EXW; an Izmir mill conceded to 613 USD/tonne EXW; and reference prices in Iskenderun hit lower levels at 605 USD/tonne EXW. With buyers retaining residual stock from September purchases and regional construction activity slowing down, mills are broadening discounts to accelerate destocking, yet overall market demand remains fundamentally constrained.

[Vietnam] Vietnam’s imported hot-rolled coil market softened in the October 13 update, with the ASEAN HRC assessment declining by USD 1/tonne to USD 540/tonne CFR Vietnam. An Indonesian producer maintained its SAE1006 HRC offer at USD 542/tonne CFR, while traders indicated workable levels of USD 535–540/tonne CFR, down from USD 538–540/tonne on October 9. Some traders were seeking bids at USD 532/tonne CFR. The Indonesian producer remained reluctant to reduce offers amid industrial water supply constraints, while buying interest remained cautious.