Overseas ore supply: Three projects most likely to be the first to come online
Since 2026, development progress of overseas tungsten concentrates has accelerated notably, with output expected to gradually enter a ramp-up phase over the next 1-3 years. Currently, three projects are most likely to achieve production.
- Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea: Controlled by Almonty, with products directed to European and US industry chains, and an offtake agreement already signed with US GTP. The mine originally planned to begin production ramp-up in 2026, and on September 23 this year, the project officially commenced trial production, with no further details on subsequent output.
- Ssangjon tungsten mine in South Korea: Controlled by Pure Tungsten, also a European/US-owned company, with products directed to European and US industry chains. The mine originally planned to begin production ramp-up in 2026, but as of the end of Q3, no product output had been achieved.
- Hemerdon tungsten-tin mine in the UK: Controlled by Tungsten West, it resumed production this year and has already produced ore on a trial basis, with annual capacity of 4,000-5,000 mt, and has signed long-term distribution contracts with leading European and US smelters.
For existing mines, multiple projects are currently in production ramp-up or construction phases.
- Nui Phao scheelite concentrates in Vietnam: Currently in the middle section of the orebody, with production expected to gradually increase as mining moves southward; output this year is relatively limited.
- EQ Resources: Mines in Queensland and Spain are both gradually ramping up production, and long-term contract deliveries have largely been signed with European and US smelters.
- New projects in Asia: New mine projects are under construction in Mongolia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, but the overall timeline is lengthy, typically requiring 3-5 years from commissioning to stable operation.
Notably, future tungsten ore projects are mostly accompanied by APT or tungsten oxide capacity construction, tending toward building entire industry chain linkages.
Two routes, two prices
International tungsten concentrate trading pricing is mainly divided into two types:
- Imported to China: Based on Chinese wolframite concentrate prices, with deductions of around 0-30% applied according to order nature, delivery date, and actual grade.
- Long-term contracts signed with European and US smelters: Based on APT CIF Rotterdam offer prices, with discounts ranging from 75-85% applied according to the long-term contract duration and ore grade. (Deduction and discount ratios vary based on actual conditions and are for reference only.)
As of October 9, SMM China 65% wolframite concentrates average price closed at 357,000 yuan/standard tonne. Calculated with a 10% deduction, the tungsten concentrates CIF China price is approximately $738/mtu; SMM APT CIF Rotterdam average price closed at $2,900/mtu. Calculated with an 80% discount, the tungsten concentrates CIF Europe/US price is equivalent to approximately $2,320/mtu. The selling price spread between the two routes has exceeded $1,500/mtu. The price spread is so wide, yet the market cannot bridge it. The core contradiction at present lies in:
- Smelting capacity in Europe and the US is limited: long-term contract orders are essentially fully booked, making it difficult for a large number of overseas miners to connect with buyers.
- Small and mid-sized miners are in an awkward position: some miners stockpiled high-priced ore in Southeast Asia and Africa during the tungsten price surge earlier this year, or operate mines that are relatively small in scale and lack capital injection from large enterprises. They can neither secure long-term contracts with the few non-China smelters nor are they willing to sell to China at low prices.
- Future project buyers are hard to lock in: enterprises launching new mine development projects also face difficulties in securing buyers.
The recent international tungsten concentrates market resembles a "black box" — although two clear trading pathways exist, very few enterprises can actually complete the chain. Suppliers, eyeing the high-price long-term contract model in Europe and the US, are unwilling to sell at low prices, while buying interest is extremely thin, with orders essentially locked in by established partners. Ferrotungsten ore buying is also constrained by cost pressure, with buyers unwilling to purchase at high prices, leaving the overall market in a deep stalemate.
Bottleneck at the smelting stage
For the reasons behind the tight smelting capacity and slow smelting growth at European smelters, please refer to the previously published analysis: [SMM Tungsten Analysis] Global Tungsten Market's Quintuple Dilemma: Smelting Capacity Bottleneck at the Core
The development dilemma in the international tungsten industry has now shifted from the mining side to the APT smelting side. As global tungsten mine projects come online one after another, only 3-4 smelters actually possess smelting capability. Even if ore supply increases, it is difficult to effectively convert into the APT products required by the industry chain. New smelting capacity faces multiple constraints including policy, environmental, and capital factors, with construction cycles still requiring 3-5 years.
The weight of this bottleneck is also evident in prices. As of October 9, APT CIF Rotterdam closed at $2,700-3,100/mtu, down $100 MoM. This downward adjustment largely reflects bearish market sentiment, low-price bids from downstream buyers, and low-price offers from some unexecuted contracts concentrated at $2,700-2,750/mtu. Currently, APT orders in the market are essentially signed to downstream buyers in the form of long-term contracts. Combined with China's inability to export APT, market feedback indicates that spot orders and spot trading of APT and tungsten oxide in Europe and the US have been virtually zero for a quarter. In the short term, constrained by the supply bottleneck and with the few existing smelters controlling prices, overseas APT prices are unlikely to fall substantially.
What actually fell in H2 was scrap and tungsten products
In H2 2026, the real declines were in scrap and hard alloy market prices. As of October 9, China tungsten bar FOB closed at $185-190/kg, averaging $187.5/kg, down 13.8% MoM; European scrap tungsten carbide inserts closed at €65-85/kg, averaging €75/kg, down 18.9% MoM. China tungsten prices have been grinding lower since Q3, and export tungsten rod quotes weakened accordingly. By contrast, European and US enterprises producing end-use rod products from self-produced APT face costs generally above $300/kg—even with demand gaps in overseas end-use industries, Chinese exports are still quoted based on domestic market conditions, causing high-priced hard alloys produced by overseas industry chains to be hit hard by low-priced Chinese export offers.
Scrap market side, most enterprises have established internal recycling mechanisms, with relatively stable demand, but H1 European raw material prices surged, speculative scrap positions quickly and gradually entered the market, and end-use tool and drill bit scrap flowing out of China and India flooded the market. Since September, the global scrap market began to show oversupply, with prices gradually grinding lower, diverging from raw material prices.
The most difficult situation currently is faced by European and US local tungsten product and hard alloy enterprises. They previously relied on purchasing tungsten powder to produce rods, alloys, and cutting tools, but China's tungsten powder export approvals are very strict, and exports of tungsten-related products to the US and Japan have been banned this year. If they cannot purchase Chinese tungsten powder, local tungsten powder will be calculated based on Rotterdam APT quotes, creating enormous cost pressure, and their products will still face price shocks from Chinese end-use products. If European raw material prices do not fall, a large number of small and medium-sized hard alloy plants will shut down in the short term, or shift to directly using Chinese end-use products.
Tungsten product side: the breakthrough point for domestic and overseas price convergence
In the medium and long term, the tungsten product segment may be the breakthrough point driving gradual price convergence between China and overseas markets. If end-use market prices gradually move closer to China's levels, it may lift raw material price quotes from the bottom up, and with new smelting capacity gradually released in the coming years, SMM expects the international market to reshape its pricing system, with the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets expected to narrow gradually.
Two aspects warrant attention going forward. First, export data and client sentiment. Acceptance of Chinese products among end-user clients in Europe and the US still needs to be observed, but if Chinese products remain price-competitive, some end-user clients will still opt for cost-effective solutions. Second, the policy front. Markets outside China are focused on RMI audit policy restrictions. China has banned RMI's audit qualifications in China since August this year, while RMI and RMAP certification are the most mainstream due diligence systems for global tungsten and other 3TG (tin, tantalum, tungsten, gold) mineral supply chains. Most European and US buyers only recognize RMI-audited products, which may restrict subsequent exports of Chinese end-use products. However, according to SMM, most enterprises still have a one-year certification period for RMI, and China plans to use CCCMC certification as a replacement for the original certification going forward.
After a market with prices but no transactions, the price spread will eventually converge toward the midpoint.
In summary, smelting capacity outside China is unlikely to expand rapidly in the short term, and Rotterdam APT prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate. With spot cargo scarce, prices reflect a market with quotes but little trading. Meanwhile, China's tungsten market sentiment is pessimistic for Q4, and tungsten prices may continue to grind lower. The price spread between Chinese and overseas markets is highly likely to widen further, and Chinese end-use products may continue to impact European and US local markets at even lower prices.
In the medium and long term, multiple APT smelting projects will be progressively advanced and brought to market in 2027. Coupled with end-user clients no longer accepting high-priced cutting tools and bar products, this may exert downward pressure on raw material purchase prices, prompting a gradual downward adjustment of the APT-led pricing system. The price spread between China and international markets is expected to converge toward the midpoint.
From a pricing perspective, European and US markets still need more time to shift their price anchor. Previously, when China's export channels were unobstructed, APT and tungsten oxide were mostly exported directly to Rotterdam port, and the European market therefore used APT as the pricing benchmark for both mine-side and downstream products. If an independent international tungsten industry chain takes shape in the future, the pricing center may gradually shift toward tungsten concentrates, but this process will still take a considerable amount of time and will depend on policy changes and market uncertainties.
