Tin Midday Commentary, Oct 9, 2026
1. Price Review
Today, SMM #1 tin spot was quoted at 392,300-395,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 393,650 yuan/mt, down sharply by 21,050 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
The most-traded SHFE tin contract weakened in last night's session, with bears aggressively adding positions and driving futures sharply lower. The weakness extended into this morning's session, with the price dipping to an intraday low of 385,810 yuan/mt before staging a technical recovery at low levels. The morning session closed at 390,090 yuan/mt, down 18,610 yuan/mt or 4.55% from the previous trading day's settlement price. Intraday trading volume reached 116,000 lots, and open interest increased by 4,120 lots to 35,365 lots.
On the LME, 3M LME tin stopped falling and rebounded to $52,170/mt, up $675/mt or 1.31% from the previous trading day. The LME had already fallen sharply yesterday and was the first to stabilize and rebound today.
2. Price Logic
This round of declines resulted from the combined effect of macro pressure and capital flows. From a macro perspective, the US dollar index rose to 102.04, approaching a six-month high, directly weighing on dollar-denominated base metals valuations. US Fed officials maintained a hawkish tone but at a moderating pace—Waller said further rate hikes are still needed to bring inflation back down to 2%, but hikes need not occur at consecutive meetings and timing can be flexible; the dot plot reflected a rate cut after hikes in early 2027. Musalem said rates should be raised over the next 6-9 months. Market pricing for an October hike remained low, with focus shifting to upcoming inflation data.
Meanwhile, sharply higher oil prices reinforced the "inflation-interest rate" pressure path: a hurricane approaching the Gulf of Mexico shut in about 512,000 bbl/day of crude oil capacity, and combined with a tanker hitting a mine and exploding in the southern Strait of Hormuz shipping lane, Iran threatening to block "illegal" shipping lanes, and a new round of US sanctions on Iran involving 17 oil tankers, the double supply-side shock sent WTI up 3.29% overnight to $91.18/bbl, while Brent rose 3.73% to $103.94, back above the $100 mark. The energy premium heightened inflation pressure, extending expectations for rates to stay high and exerting reverse pressure on base metals valuations.
In terms of futures market pace, the market had partially priced in holiday news on the first day after the holiday, but from yesterday afternoon to the night session, bears leveraged macro pressure to aggressively add positions and push prices sharply lower. This morning, after dipping to around 386,000 yuan, the decline narrowed and prices recovered at low levels, while LME tin had already stopped falling and rebounded first. This suggests the sharp drop in SHFE tin was partly catching up with LME losses and a concentrated release of bearish sentiment. Whether prices can stabilize will depend on when the added bear positions exit.
3. Spot Market
After prices fell quickly to the 380,000-390,000 yuan range, some downstream enterprises began inquiring at low prices, with purchasing willingness picking up. On the supplier side, willingness to sell at low prices was mixed—some traders actively sold at discounts, while others held back from selling and held prices firm, citing tight supply.
4. Outlook
In the short term, SHFE tin is at the intersection of low-level recovery after concentrated bearish positioning and persistent macro pressure. The intraday low around 386,000 yuan is the recent bull-bear watershed: if this level holds after the recovery, supported by LME stabilization and rebound, prices could build a near-term base in the 390,000-400,000 yuan range. If the US dollar continues to strengthen or inflation data surprises to the upside again, further downside cannot be ruled out. The 400,000 yuan level above has shifted from support to resistance, and whether the recovery can extend above 400,000 yuan will depend on easing macro sentiment.
![LME tin plunged 5.22% to $51,447/mt, while the most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract fell 4.50% in the night session, breaking below the 390,000 yuan mark [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/cUElw20251217171752.jpg)
![Tin prices opened high and consolidated after the holiday, with focus on the US Fed and evolving Middle East situation [SMM Tin Midday Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/nBLhE20251217171750.jpg)
