Gold Stable, Silver Weak Pattern Continues; Spot Trading Marginally Improves [SMM Daily Review]

Today, SMM's 10:00 price for the Shanghai Gold Exchange Ag (T+D) is 14,594 yuan/kg, with the premium range quoted at TD-5 to +5 yuan/kg and a weighted average price of -0.6 yuan/kg; against the most-traded SHFE 2612 contract, it is at a discount of 55-45 yuan/kg.

On the macro front, overnight precious metals showed a pattern of "stable gold, weak silver." Spot gold closed up 0.57% at $4,133.63/oz, consolidating in the $4,110-4,140/oz range; silver was relatively weak, with spot silver falling 0.99% to $59.17/oz, and the gold/silver ratio widened slightly. US Fed officials spoke hawkishly in quick succession: Waller said further rate hikes are still needed, but they do not have to be consecutive; Musalem said further monetary tightening is needed to bring inflation back to target, and rates should be raised over the next 6 to 9 months. The US dollar index and the 10-year Treasury yield both pulled back overnight (US dollar -0.15%, Treasury yield -5.9 bp), providing marginal support for gold prices. In addition, US President Trump said he is engaged in productive talks with Iran and will never attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections. Recently, macro bullish and bearish factors have been locked in a tug-of-war, and precious metals prices are expected to move sideways; risk assets (semiconductors, AI hardware) pulled back sharply, and silver is expected to remain weaker than gold, dragged down by its industrial attributes.

In the spot market, trading was relatively active for two consecutive working days after the holiday, with silver prices continuing to fluctuate. Buyer inquiries were relatively active, partly from traders seeking to restock, while actual inventory has not yet flowed to end-users for consumption. This morning, the spot-futures price spread between Ag (T+D) and the most-traded SHFE contract narrowed somewhat, fluctuating at 40-50 yuan/mt. Morning premium quotes in Shanghai were raised from yesterday, concentrated at a discount of 45 yuan/kg against SHFE 2612, but actual transactions remained at a discount of 50-55 yuan/kg; quotes in Shenzhen were similar to those in Shanghai, but trading was more active.

Overall, expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes and Middle East geopolitical risks continue to cap silver's upside, and attention should be paid to capital flows and the direction of further signals from the US Fed. Spot trading was strong today, but actual warrant inventory changes still need to be monitored.