LME tin plunged 5.22% to $51,447/mt, while the most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract fell 4.50% in the night session, breaking below the 390,000 yuan mark [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

LME tin plunged 5.22% to $51,447/mt, while SHFE tin SN2610 fell 4.50% in the night session, breaking below the 390,000 yuan mark

[Futures Market]

The most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract closed lower on the first trading day after the holiday and extended losses in the night session. On Oct 8, the daytime session opened at 409,200 yuan/mt, closed at 398,550 yuan/mt, with a high of 415,520 and a low of 397,700. The previous settlement was 410,840, and the settlement reference price was 408,370, a change of -12,290 yuan/mt (-2.99%). Trading volume was 1,565 lots, and open interest was 1,562 lots (down 575 lots on the day). In the early morning of Oct 9, the actual night session closed at 390,000 yuan/mt (night session trading volume was only 156 lots, with the price down -18,370 yuan/mt, or -4.50%, from the previous settlement), and open interest was 1,540 lots (down 22 lots on the day).

LME 3M tin closed at $51,447/mt on Oct 8, down $2,832/mt (-5.22%). LME tin inventory on Oct 8 was 4,310 mt, down 15 mt on the day, marking four consecutive days of declines and hitting a near three-year low.

[Inventory: Three Dimensions]

• LME tin inventory: 4,310 mt (Oct 8, down 15 mt on the day, four consecutive days of declines, near three-year low)
• SHFE tin futures warrants: 4,326 mt (Oct 8, up 168 mt on the day)
• SMM China tin ingot social inventory: In the last week before the holiday (week of Sep 30), inventory fell by 982 mt to 8,633 mt, down over 10% WoW, with Shanghai accounting for 90% of the decline

[Macro]

The Fed's September FOMC meeting minutes were released in the early morning of Oct 7. All 19 participants unanimously supported a 25bp rate hike in September to 3.75-4.00%, with most believing another hike this year "may be appropriate" but the pace would be data-dependent. CME FedWatch showed an 80-86% probability of holding rates steady in October (14-28% probability of a 25bp hike), and a 63-68% probability of a cumulative 25bp hike by December. The 10-year US Treasury yield stood at a high of 5.20%, and the US dollar index strengthened in the 102 range. Spurred by tensions in Iran, WTI crude oil surged 5.5% on Oct 8 to break above $93/barrel, while Brent held above $100/barrel. This Friday (Oct 9), the University of Michigan survey, and the September CPI on Oct 14 are the key macro windows in the first week after the holiday.

[Fundamentals]

Mine supply: The resumption of production at the Man Maw mining area in Myanmar's Wa State has only recovered to 40-50% of pre-ban levels, with rainy season drainage and a shortage of civilian explosives continuing to constrain production release. In July, tin concentrate exports to China were 1,077 mt Sn (down 27% MoM), and imports from Myanmar in August were approximately 1,000 mt Sn. A full production resumption has been postponed to 2027. Indonesia's RKAB quota controls remain in place, with cumulative refined tin exports from January to August down 18.17% YoY. The Alphamin mine in the DRC remains temporarily stable but risks persist. Yunnan 40% tin concentrate TCs held steady at a low of 18,000 yuan/mt throughout the month, while 60% TCs in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan remained at 14,000 yuan/mt, squeezing smelter profit margins.

Smelting side: Tin Co.'s tin branch began routine maintenance on 9/30 for no more than 45 days (already included in the annual plan, with no major impact on full-year production); Yunnan operating rate pulled back from a stage high of 91.32% in the week of 9/4 to 84.78% (week of 9/24); Jiangxi operating rate held at a low around 32.32% all month (a new low since June).

Demand side: August solder enterprise operating rate was 72.8% (low compared with the same period over the past five years); integrated circuit production rose 20.6% YoY and NEV production rose 21.9% YoY, supporting tin consumption; high-end solder orders related to AI computing power, AI servers, and advanced packaging maintained resilience, but growth was limited; traditional consumer electronics and PV welding strip orders were subdued (September peak season fell short of expectations).

[Spot Market]

T-1 review: On 10/8, the first day after the holiday, domestic suppliers held back from selling while downstream players stayed on the sidelines, with the overall futures range finding support at the lower bound of 408,000 yuan/mt; a weak LME and a stronger US dollar pressured SHFE; the night session spilled over to -4.50%.

T-day morning outlook: Watch the US Fed's December rate hike expectations and the evolving Middle East situation; SN2611 is expected to trade in the 388,000-398,000 yuan/mt range today; LME tin 3M is expected to trade in the $50,000-53,000/mt range.

Key judgment: Triple macro headwinds (surging oil prices, a hawkish US Fed, and a stronger US dollar) combined with a post-holiday demand verification vacuum period pushed SHFE tin below the 390,000 mark in the night session, but hard constraints on the ore side + Yunnan Tin's 45-day maintenance + domestic social inventory drawdowns form downside support, and tin prices are likely to consolidate on a subdued note with wild swings in the first week after the holiday.