[SMM Analysis] Sheets & Plates Holiday Review, HRC Prices Mostly Down 10-20 yuan/mt

During the National Day holiday, HRC prices in mainstream cities across the country remained stable.
On the first trading day after the holiday, in the east China market, Shanghai quotes were down 20-30 yuan/mt from pre-holiday levels, with mainstream resource quotes at 3,280-3,290 yuan/mt and average market inquiry sentiment. Ningbo spot cargo was quoted at 3,280-3,290 yuan/mt, down 20-30 yuan/mt from pre-holiday levels, with market trading sentiment improving slightly, but some end-user purchasing enthusiasm remained weak, mainly wait-and-see. Hangzhou spot cargo was quoted at 3,300-3,310 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from pre-holiday levels, with traders mostly holding prices firm for now.
On the first trading day after the holiday, in the south China market, Lecong quotes were down 10-20 yuan/mt from pre-holiday levels, with mainstream resource quotes at 3,260-3,270 yuan/mt. Traders were relatively firm on prices, market inquiry sentiment was average, and no significant inquiry release was seen.
On the first trading day after the holiday, quotes in the northern Tangshan area were down about 10 yuan/mt from pre-holiday levels, with mainstream resource quotes at 3,210-3,220 yuan/mt. Traders currently hold weak expectations for the market outlook, but due to their own low inventory, they have the willingness to hold prices firm. Similarly, downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong, market trading sentiment is average, and overall trading volume is low.
In the cold-rolled market, on the first trading day after the holiday, Bensteel Group cold-rolled in Shanghai was quoted at 3,710 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from pre-holiday levels. There was no significant restocking after the holiday, the market was mostly in a wait-and-see state, and prices edged down with limited declines.

Data Source: SMM

Looking ahead, with the holiday over, nationwide inventory is expected to accumulate significantly. Attention should be paid to demand recovery and inventory destocking pace in the first 1-2 weeks after the holiday. In the short term, HRC prices are likely to trade within a weak range, with focus on the 3230-3300 range for the most-traded contract.

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