[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] EU opens expiry review of anti-subsidy duties on Indian, Indonesian cold-rolled stainless

Indonesia's nickel pig iron (NPI) has lost access to the European market as the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) enters its definitive phase in 2026, according to Eramet. Indonesian NPI production relies heavily on coal-fired captive power, resulting in relatively high carbon emissions and weakening its competitiveness in Europe as carbon costs rise. Eramet noted that tightening European carbon rules are widening the cost disadvantage for high-carbon materials, making carbon intensity an increasingly important factor for nickel and stainless steel raw materials. Indonesia's NPI exporters may therefore face greater pressure to redirect sales to other markets or reduce emissions through cleaner energy sources.

Indian stainless bright bar export prices edged lower in the week ended 29th September, with both 304 and 316 slipping amid thin trading. European buyers held back on fresh bookings because of uncertainty over CBAM implementation and the EU quota regime, demand in other key markets such as the UAE stayed soft, and elevated freight rates further weighed on exports. The domestic market held up better: 304 bright bar prices were flat and 316 eased slightly, with tight scrap supply and high alloy costs underpinning seller offers. Export prices are expected to stay broadly stable in the near term. Enquiries may pick up as overseas buyers return from holidays, but freight costs and EU trade-policy uncertainty are likely to cap new orders, while raw material costs limit the downside.

Walsin Lihwa of Taiwan (PoC) has announced October prices, keeping 304 wire rod flat along with 200- and 400-series grades. It raised copper-bearing and free-cutting 304, with a larger increase for molybdenum-bearing 316. The company said local stainless scrap prices rose markedly month-on-month, lifting production costs, while AI infrastructure build-out, through demand for liquid cooling and transmission components, is keeping copper and molybdenum prices elevated. After a sizeable benchmark increase in September, Walsin held the base price this month to protect downstream export competitiveness and passed through costs only on alloy-specific grades. That contrasts with Yusco and Tang Eng, which kept raising flat-product prices; on the wire rod side the mill is weighing cost pass-through against what downstream users can absorb. Points to watch are whether local scrap prices keep climbing and whether the benchmark resumes rising in November.