Ahead of the National Day holiday, China's copper social inventory saw slight destocking, and spot resources in circulation tightened. Affected by production halts during the dual holidays, the operating rate of China's copper cathode rod enterprises dropped notably this week, while raw material and finished product inventories at processing plants showed structural divergence. Based on the National Day holiday arrangements, under the combined impact of tight spot supply, high premiums, and weak end-use demand, copper rod enterprises extended their holiday shutdowns this year, and the market remained cautious overall about a recovery in the traditional October peak season.
Inventory-wise, as of September 30, copper inventories in major regions across China edged down MoM, with total volume pulling back by 1,100 mt to 73,700 mt. Previously accumulated priced stockpiling orders were executed in a concentrated manner, with batch cargo pick-up driving a slight decline in social inventory.
Directly affected by holiday factors, the production pace of China's copper cathode rod slowed down in phases this week. In the final week before the holiday (September 25-October 1), the operating rate of major copper cathode rod enterprises in China came in at 64.75%, down 5.15 percentage points MoM. The core reason for this week's operating rate decline was production disruptions from the Mid-Autumn Festival mini-holiday and the first day of the National Day holiday, with most enterprises suspending operations starting October 1. However, rigid downstream demand was released in a concentrated manner before the holiday, and enterprises actively rushed to fulfill orders and stockpiled in advance, effectively offsetting part of the operating rate decline and making this week's actual operating performance better than earlier market expectations. Meanwhile, core downstream copper end-users such as wire and cable and enamelled wire were simultaneously affected by holiday shutdowns, with operating loads generally lowered, and the overall production and raw material consumption pace of end-users slowed in tandem.
Inventory divergence at processing enterprises was pronounced. On the raw material side, thanks to concentrated pre-holiday cargo pick-up, raw material inventories at copper rod plants rose MoM, with enterprises completing a round of pre-holiday raw material reserves. On the demand side, end-user production slowed and willingness to purchase cooled, downstream cargo pick-up pace weakened, and finished product inventory pressure at copper rod plants continued to build. The increase in finished product inventories outpaced that on the raw material side, highlighting insufficient end-use demand momentum before the holiday and weak willingness to stockpile proactively.
SMM surveyed 20 major copper cathode rod enterprises in China regarding National Day holiday arrangements and pre-holiday stockpiling, with the sample covering an annual capacity of 7.66 million mt. This year, the industry's overall National Day holiday duration increased compared with previous years. Pre-holiday market conditions and demand trends reversed several times. Earlier, copper prices fluctuated at highs for an extended period, persistently suppressing downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Near the holiday, copper prices pulled back in the short term, briefly releasing rigid demand and driving a surge in copper rod orders, leading the market to initially expect enterprises to shorten their shutdown periods. However, affected by subsequent spot tightening and a sharp rise in premiums, end-users found it difficult to absorb high-priced raw materials, stockpiling sentiment cooled rapidly, new orders weakened again, and ultimately enterprise holiday days increased rather than decreased.
In terms of holiday duration, a same-caliber sample comparison shows that enterprises took an average of 4.05 days off during the 2025 National Day holiday, while the average holiday length increased to 4.4 days in 2026, up 0.35 days YoY. For downstream end-users such as wire and cable and enamelled wire, holiday durations remained largely flat compared with last year, as demand showed no clear recovery. Looking at the overall production pace for the year, the industry saw improved operating rates in Q1, supported by a pullback in copper prices and sluggish supply of secondary rod. However, since mid-year, copper prices have fluctuated at highs, persistently weighing on end-user order intake and enterprise production schedules. Combined with the pre-holiday pattern of high premiums and weak orders, production pressure in the industry has remained pronounced.
Looking ahead to October, multiple factors are expected to weigh on industry sentiment. The extended holiday shutdown will significantly drag on monthly operating rates, while high copper prices continue to curb consumption. No clear recovery signal has yet emerged for the traditional "Golden October," and the operating rate for copper cathode rod is expected to decline further in October, with consumption weaker than the same period last year. After the holiday, social inventory of copper cathode is expected to shift into an inventory buildup phase, and the subsequent production pace remains to be seen. Uncertainty persists around spot premiums and order recovery, and enterprises will dynamically adjust production schedules in line with copper price movements and changes in downstream orders.
