September Liquid Aluminum Ratio Missed Expectations; Slight Decline Expected in October 【SMM Analysis】

SMM News, September 30:

According to SMM statistics, China's primary aluminum output in September 2026 (30 days) increased by 2.2% year-on-year and decreased by 3.2% month-on-month. Domestic downstream demand recovered somewhat month-on-month in September, but processing fees for certain processed products remained under pressure, prompting some downstream enterprises to cut or suspend production. As a result, molten aluminum purchasing intentions weakened, dragging the molten aluminum output ratio lower. The ratio declined by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month to 78.2% in September, below the expectation set at the beginning of the month, with the core reduction mainly stemming from parts of the Central Plains and South China regions.

Based on SMM's molten aluminum ratio estimates, domestic primary aluminum ingot casting volume in September fell 6.2% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month.

Capacity changes: As of end-September, China's installed primary aluminum capacity stood at approximately 46.2887 million tonnes, according to SMM statistics, flat month-on-month.

Production forecast: Entering October 2026, some downstream enterprises have cut or suspended production due to the National Day holiday, leading to a temporary decline in the molten aluminum ratio. In addition, processing fees for some downstream products still face further downside risk, putting downward pressure on molten aluminum demand. Overall, the molten aluminum ratio is expected to decline by 0.3 percentage points to 77.9%.

【Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data are compiled by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.】