Q3 galvanising operating rates weak YoY; will Q4 demand see a recovery? [SMM analysis]
The galvanising industry remained in the doldrums overall in Q3, with operating rates still at relatively low levels YoY, and demand improvement in the traditional peak season also fell short of expectations. Will demand recover in Q4?
The galvanising industry remained in the doldrums overall in Q3, with operating rates still at relatively low levels YoY, and demand improvement in the traditional peak season also fell short of expectations. Will demand recover in Q4?
Galvanising industry operating rates were weak overall in Q3. High temperatures, typhoons and other weather disrupted production and transportation at some enterprises, while end-use consumption was mediocre. Galvanised pipe sales were sluggish, enterprise orders provided insufficient support, and some enterprises saw finished product inventories increase and proactively lowered production schedules. Steel tower orders began to see significant release from September, but follow-through from other infrastructure orders was relatively limited. Export orders were generally mediocre, PV-related demand was also weak, and overall operating rates remained weak YoY.
Entering Q4, power grid-related orders still provide some support, and as some projects enter the actual construction phase, they are expected to drive galvanising demand. On the infrastructure side, some projects will enter the construction phase in Q4, but property-related demand recovery remains slow, and galvanised pipe demand is improving slowly. Solar panel mounting bracket orders are relatively weak, export orders have yet to show clear growth, and traditional demand still lacks broad-based improvement. Therefore, even if some project orders continue to be released in Q4, overall industry demand may still show only a structural recovery.
Overall, Q4 galvanising operating rates may rebound from Q3, but the extent of the recovery still depends on the follow-through of new orders from the power grid, infrastructure and other sectors. If subsequent project orders can be implemented smoothly, industry operating rates are expected to improve further, but the overall pattern of weak operating rates YoY is expected to persist.
Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.
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