Market closes steadily, the most-traded SHFE tin contract moves sideways ahead of National Day holiday [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Published: Sep 30, 2026 12:58 (GMT+8)

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[SMM Tin Midday Review: Market Ends Stable, SHFE Tin Moves Sideways Ahead of National Day Holiday]

Tin Midday Commentary for September 30, 2026

1. Price Review

Today, SMM #1 tin spot was quoted at 408,600-410,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 409,550 yuan/mt, down 450 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

The most-traded SHFE tin contract moved sideways today, reaching an intraday high of 415,810 yuan/mt and a low of 407,420 yuan/mt, closing the morning at 408,980 yuan/mt, basically flat from the previous trading day's settlement price of 408,990 yuan/mt.

On the LME, LME tin 3M edged lower, currently quoted at $53,695/mt, down $110/mt or 0.2% from the previous trading day.

2. Spot Market

The spot market has essentially entered holiday mode today, with sluggish trading. Downstream buyers had already completed concentrated stockpiling when prices were low earlier, and raw material inventories are generally well-stocked, leaving only sporadic just-in-time turnover. Market participation is expected to decline further in the afternoon, with the spot market smoothly transitioning into the holiday.

3. Comprehensive Outlook

The core variable for the post-holiday market is the US Fed's interest rate decision and policy stance. If a rate hike is implemented, the price center will shift lower, but the extent will depend on the nature of the hike. If it is a mild hike in line with market expectations, prices are expected to consolidate in the 390,000-400,000 yuan/mt range. If the statement itself is notably hawkish beyond the decision, signaling further tightening, a test of the 380,000 yuan/mt level cannot be ruled out. If there is no hike, market sentiment is likely to recover, and the price center is expected to move toward the 420,000 yuan/mt level. Meanwhile, markets outside China will trade normally during the holiday, leaving China with several days of information gap, and the post-holiday opening may price in accumulated holiday news all at once. It is recommended to monitor US data, US Fed officials' remarks, and the evolution of the Middle East situation during the holiday.

With that, the SMM tin research team wishes everyone a happy holiday!

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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