[SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Pre-holiday trading slows, polysilicon holds quotes firm, wafer market waits on the sidelines

SMM, September 30:

Silicon coal

prices: This week, silicon coal prices in major producing regions remained mostly stable, with slight downward adjustments in a few regions. Xinjiang non-caking silicon coal was at 885-950 yuan/mt, Xinjiang silicon coal at 1,300-1,350 yuan/mt, and Shaanxi silicon coal near 950 yuan/mt.

Supply: Tight raw coal supply has not fully eased, and combined with winter heating demand, silicon coal still has cost support recently.

Demand: As silicon coal prices rose from late August to early September, production costs for silicon enterprises increased.

Silicon metal

prices: Yesterday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was around 9,400-9,500 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was around 9,500-9,600 yuan/mt. Before the holiday, spot silicon metal prices mainly consolidated in a stalemate, with suppliers holding quotes basically stable. Downstream buyers purchased as needed before the holiday, costs were high, and spot silicon metal circulation in the market was tight.

Production: In September, operating rates at different silicon enterprises saw both increases and decreases. Large plants in Xinjiang cut production at end-August, while some silicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, and Xinjiang increased production in September. Overall, the reduction was larger, and September silicon metal production fell MoM.

Inventory: SMM statistics show that on September 24, social inventory of silicon metal in major regions decreased by 28,000 mt WoW (including warrants, excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, and other regions).

Silicone

prices:

DMC: Quoted at 14,400-14,600 yuan/mt yesterday, with an average price of about 14,500 yuan/mt. Current market transactions are around 14,500 yuan/mt. Monomer plants showed strong willingness to hold prices firm before the holiday, but downstream buyers remained bearish on post-holiday prices and still purchased in small volumes, leaving actual market transactions sluggish. Attention should be paid to the monomer plant industry meeting in early October.

D4: Quoted at 14,700-15,200 yuan/mt yesterday, with an average price of about 14,950 yuan/mt.

107 silicone rubber: Quoted at 14,500-14,700 yuan/mt yesterday, with an average price of about 14,600 yuan/mt.

Raw rubber: Quoted at 15,400-15,700 yuan/mt yesterday, with an average price of about 15,500 yuan/mt.

Silicone oil: Quoted at 15,800-15,900 yuan/mt yesterday, with an average price of about 15,850 yuan/mt.

Production: This week, some units under maintenance resumed operations, and the overall operating rate rebounded slightly to around 62%. The resumption of the 150,000 mt unit in Shandong was postponed, limiting short-term supply growth. Currently, most monomer producers have sufficient pre-sale orders.

Inventory: Some monomer producers have orders scheduled through mid-to-late October, monomer producer inventories remain low, and spot circulation in the market is tight.

Polysilicon

Prices: Polysilicon N-type recharging polysilicon is quoted at 39.5-42.3 yuan/kg. Producer quotes are relatively stable at present, with few market transactions. The production cut meeting has led some producers to expect the price center to shift upward, but downstream acceptance remains limited. There are also market reports that a leading upstream and downstream player has signed a relatively high-priced order.

Production: September polysilicon production was around 120,000 mt, mainly driven by production resumptions at some enterprises. In Q4, expectations for production cuts in some regions may lead to lower output. October production is expected to decline.

Inventory: Upstream inventory continues to accumulate. Some traders have purchased some cargoes, while downstream procurement volume remains relatively small.

Wafer

Prices: Market prices are 0.994-1.002 yuan/piece for 18X wafers, 1.026-1.044 yuan/piece for 210RN wafers, and 1.119-1.145 yuan/piece for 210N wafers. With the holiday approaching, wafer prices are generally stable. Demand side, pre-holiday stockpiling is nearing its end, new procurement demand is limited, and overall market trading sentiment is subdued. As the 232 rules are implemented, demand in markets outside China may gradually turn cautious. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the return of overseas cargoes and its potential impact on the supply-demand pattern in the Chinese market.

Production: According to the latest SMM survey, October wafer production is expected to pull back slightly from September.

Inventory: As stockpiling winds down, wafer destocking momentum may gradually weaken.

High-purity quartz sand

Prices: Current prices in China are 40,000-47,000 yuan/mt for inner-layer sand, 21,000-24,000 yuan/mt for middle-layer sand, and 12,500-18,000 yuan/mt for outer-layer sand. Imported high-purity quartz sand is priced at 50,000-53,500 yuan/mt. The 33-inch quartz crucible is priced at 5,400-5,700 yuan/piece, and the 36-inch quartz crucible at 6,450-6,600 yuan/piece. In the final week before the holiday, there were no transactions in the Chinese market. Both upstream and downstream enterprises showed weak inquiry sentiment, and most enterprises will resume quoting after the holiday, so prices remained stable.

Production: October planned quartz sand production declined again. Currently, month-on-month declining crucible demand has led to a surplus of quartz sand supply, and some enterprises have begun cutting production to ease the situation.

Inventory: Recently, sand producers' inventory changes have been relatively small, but the trend is edging up. Some crucible producers have started selling off their earlier quartz sand inventory, increasing upstream shipment pressure and causing inventory levels to rise.