Sep 30 SMM cast aluminum alloy morning comment
Futures: Overnight, the most-traded aluminum alloy 2611 contract opened at 23,650 yuan/mt, drifted lower after the open, and closed at 23,540 yuan/mt in the tail session, down 195 yuan/mt, or 0.82%. Night session trading volume was 4,604 lots, and open interest decreased by 2,214 lots, showing a pullback pattern on reduced open interest. The daily chart formed a solid bearish candlestick, with prices pulling back near the DKX bullish/bearish line. The B line was at 23,585 yuan/mt and the D line at 23,533 yuan/mt, with current prices near the bullish/bearish dividing level. The KD indicator showed K at 61.04 and D at 60.15, with the indicator turning lower and bullish momentum somewhat reined in. Resistance above was at 23,865-23,935 yuan/mt, while support below was seen at 23,470 yuan/mt. The market has entered a phase of consolidating at highs with a pullback in the short term.
Spot-futures price spread daily: According to SMM data, on September 29, the theoretical premium of SMM ADC12 spot price over the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminum alloy contract (AD2611) at 10:15 was 875 yuan/mt.
Aluminum scrap: On Tuesday, SMM A00 aluminum price closed at 24,110 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The aluminum scrap market lowered prices by 50-100 yuan/mt. In some regions, after having cut prices by 200-300 yuan/mt the previous day in line with futures, scrap quotes were either kept flat or raised by 100 yuan/mt after futures rebounded. The cumulative decline this week remained at 200 yuan/mt. On the price difference between A00 aluminum and aluminum scrap, the price difference between A00 aluminum and mixed aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan was about 2,519 yuan/mt on September 29, and the price difference between A00 aluminum and shredded aluminum tense scrap was about 1,353 yuan/mt. In terms of supply, tax audits in Henan, Hunan, and other regions continued to escalate and deepen. Compliant, invoice-bearing aluminum scrap became increasingly scarce, providing strong support to prices. At the same time, non-invoiced cargo saw narrowing sales channels under compliance pressure, and some traders were forced to cut prices to sell, keeping prices under persistent downward pressure. On the demand side, the cast aluminum alloy "September peak season" fell short of expectations, with demand yet to see a substantial increase. Demand for wrought aluminum alloy was moderate, and in-factory aluminum scrap inventory was relatively ample.
Silicon metal: On September 29, SMM east China non-oxygen blown #553 prices were stable; oxygen-blown #553 prices were stable; #521 prices were stable; #441 prices were stable; #421 prices were stable; #421 for silicone prices were stable; #3303 prices were stable. Silicon prices in south China, Guangdong, Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, northwest China, Xinjiang, Sichuan, Shanghai, and other regions were stable.
Markets outside China: On the import side, overseas ADC12 quotes remained in the range of $3,100-3,200/mt, with import profit margin near breakeven. Attention should be paid to the replenishment of imported cargo going forward.
Summary: On Tuesday, the ADC12 spot market overall remained stable. On one hand, although aluminum prices and cast aluminum futures weakened, the decline in aluminum scrap raw material was limited. Combined with stricter tax policies keeping compliant procurement costs high, the cost side provided strong support to spot prices, and spot prices showed limited willingness to follow the decline. On the other hand, with the National Day holiday approaching, downstream pre-holiday stockpiling was mediocre, and market transactions did not show significant volume increases, leaving insufficient upward momentum on the demand side. Amid the tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand, short-term enterprise quotes are expected to remain mostly stable. Future trends will require close attention to actual pre-holiday transactions, raw material costs, and futures movements.
[Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]
![Futures consolidate on low volume, spot alumina drifts lower [SMM Alumina Morning Comment]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/DCsGU20251217171652.jpg)
