SMM Copper Morning Briefing | Wed. Sep. 30, 2026

Overnight, LME copper closed lower while SHFE copper closed higher, both showing long liquidation. The macro market continued to be disrupted by expectations around US Fed monetary policy. Copper prices are expected to stay high and move sideways today.

1. Overnight Futures

LME copper:

Opened at $14,426/mt, hit a high of $14,483/mt, a low of $14,399.5/mt, and closed at $14,425.5/mt, down 0.36%. Trading volume was 17,000 lots, and open interest was 258,000 lots, down 1,360 lots from the previous trading day, indicating long liquidation.

The most-traded SHFE copper 2611 contract:

Opened at 109,280 yuan/mt, hit a high of 109,790 yuan/mt, a low of 109,280 yuan/mt, and closed at 109,420 yuan/mt, up 0.11%. Trading volume was 23,000 lots, and open interest was 184,000 lots, down 975 lots from the previous trading day, indicating long liquidation.

2. News

On Monday, September 28, two unions at Antofagasta Minerals' Centinela copper mine in Chile rejected the company's collective contract proposal, moving one step closer to a strike.

The company and the unions must now enter a government-mandated five-day compulsory mediation process, which can be extended by another five days with mutual consent before a legal strike can occur.

98.73% of union members voted in favor of a strike, with all eligible members participating in the vote. The Minera Esperanza and Distrito Centinela unions had previously called on members to reject the proposal, claiming that Antofagasta Minerals refused to discuss unified worker benefits regardless of which union workers belong to.

Centinela's copper production in 2025 was 240,400 mt.

3. Spot Market

1) Shanghai

On September 29, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2610 contract were quoted at a premium of 900-1,200 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 1,050 yuan/mt, down 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

In early trading, the SHFE copper 2610 contract bottomed out and then continued to climb. After the open, prices quickly dipped to around 109,720 yuan/mt, then rebounded to around 109,880 yuan/mt and consolidated. Copper prices then gradually moved higher, and after breaking through 109,960 yuan/mt, gains widened. Prices surged rapidly near midday, reaching an intraday high of around 110,200 yuan/mt, and closed the morning session at 110,190 yuan/mt.

The backwardation spread between the front-month and next-month contracts was 610-700 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2610 contract for the current month was at a loss of 770-590 yuan/mt.

Procurement sentiment was 2.79, up 0.01 MoM; sales sentiment was 3.18, up 0.03 MoM.

During the day, suppliers continuously lowered their quotes to facilitate transactions, and the market transaction center shifted further downward. In early trading, the price spread between the SHFE copper 2610 and 2611 contracts consolidated around a backwardation of 600 yuan/mt before rapidly widening, once expanding to a backwardation of 700-710 yuan/mt during the session. Near-month contracts strengthened further against deferred contracts, and the inter-month backwardation structure deepened notably, exerting some pressure on spot purchases.

Demand side, most downstream processing enterprises have largely completed their pre-holiday stockpiling, leaving limited new purchasing demand. Market trading activity is expected to decline further today. As pre-holiday demand gradually weakens, suppliers face mounting shipment pressure, and spot premiums in Shanghai are expected to continue edging down tomorrow.

2) Guangdong

On September 29, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract:

• high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 900 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day;
• standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 600 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day;
• SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 540 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 110,640 yuan/mt, down 445 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 110,430 yuan/mt, down 445 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Purchasing sentiment was 2.47, down 0.09 from the previous trading day; selling sentiment was 2.61, down 0.15 from the previous trading day.

Overall, with the National Day holiday approaching, downstream restocking has entered its final stage, and spot premiums fell sharply.

3) Imported copper

September 29:

• the average warrant price was $119/mt, up $2/mt from the previous trading day, with a price range of $110-128/mt;
• the average B/L price was 114 yuan/mt, up 2 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, with a price range of 104-124 yuan/mt;
• the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $53/mt, up $1/mt from the previous trading day, with a price range of $46-60/mt.

Quotes referenced cargoes arriving from late September to October.

4) Secondary copper

At 11:30 on September 29, the futures closing price was 110,190 yuan/mt, up 220 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premium was 1,050 yuan/mt, down 90 yuan/mt MoM from the previous trading day.

Secondary copper raw material prices remained unchanged MoM; the selling sentiment index fell to 2.52, and the purchasing sentiment index fell to 1.99; the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,056 yuan/mt, up 130 yuan/mt MoM; the price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,930 yuan/mt.

According to the SMM survey, copper prices climbed in the afternoon, dampening pre-National Day holiday stockpiling sentiment among secondary copper rod enterprises once again. Facing high copper prices, end-user wire and cable enterprises requested that secondary copper rod enterprises deliver during the National Day holiday when placing orders, while secondary copper rod enterprises preferred to negotiate post-holiday shipment. The secondary copper raw material market saw mediocre transactions during the day.

IV. Inventory (September 28)

As of Monday, September 28, SMM copper inventories in mainstream regions across China increased by 3,500 mt WoW from the previous Monday to above 70,000 mt. Total inventories were down 70,000 mt from above 140,000 mt in the same period last year.

V. Price Outlook

Macro:

Several US Fed officials made statements on monetary policy, including New York Fed President Williams, who indicated there may be one more rate hike this year but there is no need to rush. The dovish remarks cooled market expectations for rate hikes. The market is focused on this week's PCE inflation data and the US employment report, which will provide guidance for this year's rate decisions.

Fundamentals:

Supply side, arrivals of both domestic and imported cargoes increased, easing the tightness in spot circulation. Demand side, new pre-holiday purchasing demand was weak, and combined with high premiums, market trading sentiment was sluggish.

Overall, copper prices are expected to stay high and move sideways in a narrow range today.

The information provided is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.